Hi All,
I wanted to start a thread to discuss the bull case for FMG. I am hoping we can have realistic (not pie in the sky) thoughts backed by research on the potential upside. There is a lot of negativity around at the moment. I think it might be useful to balance that by considering the bull case. I think a $10,000 investment into FMG has a realistic pathway to realising a value of +$130,000 over a 10 year period and a share price of $100. See some of my reasoning below.
Here are some of my thoughts;
Iron Ore Price - the long term average Iron Ore price for the last decade which represents the period of the modern market structure is in the range of USD110 factoring in CPI. FMG's all in cost of production is USD35 and its production is in the order of 180mtpa. At a tax rate of 30%, an exchange rate of 0.72 and if 80% of profits are paid out as dividends, we can expect annual dividends of approximately $3.90 franked. If your superannuation fund owns the shares then you pay a 15% tax rate or recieve $4.81 annually. This is a return of 29%. So over a 10 year period you recieve dividends of $29,000 on your $20,000 investment even without reinvestment.
Iron Bridge - Iron Bridge will produce a premium product. It will produce 22mtpa of 67%Fe product. This will command a premium price, likely in the range of USD155 per tonne at a long term average but with a likely all in cost of production in the range of USD55. Iron Bridge is due for commissioning at the end of 2022, so presuming that we recieve income hence dividends from IBO of 80 % of earnings for 8 of the 10 years we will recieve an additional dividend of approximately $1.40 per annum franked (worth $1.75 within your super fund. This is an additional $10k return over the 10 year period.
Raw Steel production - FMG has first mover advantage in creating a raw steel product. This raw steel product will compete with scrap and command a premium price relative to iron ore. The scrap price ranges between about USD250 and 500 per tonne. Presuming that FMG makes the technology work and develops the technology, then it will be considered a first mover disrupting the whole of the iron ore industry. Under this scenario, FMG might produce 50mtpa of raw steel in 10 years time (say) and be on the way to producing its entire production as raw steel. This scenario will see FMG re rated and a PE of 15 is realistic. First mover technology companies can command much higher PE's than 15 but 15 is realistic and the PE will be on higher earnings. Under this scenario, FMG would trade in the range of $100 per share. This is based on annual earnings of AUD20B after tax and a PE of 15. So your investment in FMG of $10,000 now has a value on the ASX of $70,000 base.
FFI - FFI has an annual investment going in to it of 10% of FMG profits and it is investing in a geared way in renewable fuel. Using the IO price long term average stated above, this means that FFI has approximately $1.5B being invested into it over the long term. Over 10 years this will grown through investment and it is easy to see that FMG in 10 years time has a value of $30B. This equates to approximately $10 per FMG share. For arguments sake, lets assume FMG is floated off as a separate company and given to FMG shareholders at the end of 10 years. It will be worth $10 per share. So your investment now of $10,000 into FMG shares will give you $7,000 worth of FFI share in 10 years time.
Based on the above. Even without re investment of dividends, my $10,000 FMG investments gives me $129,000 in value over a 10 year period assuming it is in my super fund and paying super tax rates. At that time my FMG shares will be worth $100 and be paying me dividends into the foreseeable future.
Please comment. I understand all of my statements above can have holes picked in them. But I think it is a realistic (not pie in the sky) bull case for FMG.
(20min delay)