I'm going to get shot down for posting this but what happens if the iron ore price doesn't recover? From what I'm reading FMG's whole financing plan is based on ramping up production to increase income and bring down average cost of production to a level that send them from cash negative to cash positive.
By shelving expansion Twiggy has bought time but if iron ore stays at $85-$90 for how long? Unless iron ore prices go back up to historical highs and billions more are spent ramping up production the FMG model doesn't work. With debt of $8.5 billion and MC about the same the bankers must be panicking.
For the record I'm not short this stock nor do I wish to buy at lower prices. I'm just wondering what effect the shock of FMG failing would have on mining and mining services in Australia.
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