FML 15.2% 14.0¢ focus minerals ltd

fml's next move

  1. 2,338 Posts.
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    Hi ALL

    well what's coming next with $1m a week EXTRA,i repeat EXTRA cashflow from FML operations than before and at a guess $40-50m in the bank.

    1.At a corporate level,FML don't have access to CRE tax losses,although CRE will over the coming years and FML benefit to 86% of that $220m loss as tax credited income,so the right sort of cheap purchase for FML would be desireable in the next 6 months to improve free cashflow.
    Who's got the BIGGEST TAX LOSSES at the cheapest price,public or privately owned heading for administration or collapse that can be got for paper or cheaply with cash.FORGET THE MINING OPERATIONS,although bonuses there accepted.
    Why care about the mining operations that may be aquired,if you need to let them close,or they are already.
    FML Tax payable could be 15-30m saved in cashflow just this year.Next year at these gold prices considerably more.Lets use the freed up tax free cash for #2

    2.With growing cash and even with organic growth,what's going to happen with the surplus cash.I for one would like to see an on market share buyback of up to 20% of share capital.
    FML issued near on a billion shares for CRE at a nominal value of 7.7c.It also fundraised nearly $40m at the same price.
    Buying them back now at 6.5c would benefit shareholders per share equity immensely and support our undervalued shareprice.At current prices that's around about 20% gain and certainly a lot more,given the true value of FML shares NOW and in the near future and GOOD CAPITIAL MANAGEMENT of surplus tax free cash.
    As an example CSL issued shares at around $36 and bought most back at around $28 from memory at considerable benefit to shareholders around two years ago.Non taxable free funds above needs are still used this way when available.
    In FML's case it would be on an as they become surplus to requirements basis and wouldn't happen all at once,but spread over a year or longer.

    3.FML's looking for more gold production.CRE's got plant awaiting start-up with 1.5 mt capacity.We all wonder under who's ownership? and where.Say $10m to get going in situ.

    4.TI i suspect is a bit like the Mount,where above ground and below ground,down hole geophysics will unlock an interesting geology,that will require a unique way of unlocking it profitably.Until you know the size and the scale at which you can mine it economically and what method,to what sized plant,YOU KNOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING CONCRETE,worth debating.
    How close they are to that is anyones guess,but i would suggest a year way.Drill hole announcements may mean little if the structure below ground is similar to the mount,high grade thin shoots with a vertical orientation.I'm sure without geophysics the mount would not be known for what it is or be being developed the way it is being now.It would still have two men working it on a single boom jumbo as it was trial mined.

    5.If they can't find some tax losses somewhere to keep free cash within the company,use it or distribute it taxfree via on market buyback,then maybe it's time for the TOKEN DIVVY with whatever credits are accumulated over the next year.

    6.Focus operations are all very much stand alone each part performing to it's maximising criteria.

    Milling and processing-to maximise yield and tons thru.Maybe cash for incremental expansion required

    Tindals U/G -at maximum economical rate(has been overworked less efficiently due pit delays but reducing back to it's steady state)Steady state -cash generating

    Tindals PITS-exploratory mining of the cheapest kind-with highgrade u/g mines or enlarged pits the ultimate aim at ever increasing grades the deeper we go.Costing development-cash generating NOW ONLINE

    The MOUNT-Cash generating

    EXPLORATION-budget probably based on a percent per ounce levy on gold produced above a certain base price.I would expect exploration to be terminated when gold drops to the predetermined base price.Hence the need for more for less and the extensive use of very shallow drilling to justify the next economical move on existing producing sites.

    a.TI-Transition to development and funded i suspect by the above levy,hence the expanded level of equipment onsite with a rising gold price.

    b.Greater Coolgardie-lining up the next ducks while the cash is there,for leaner times,or the BIG STRIKE NOW.

    So what do you reckon is FML's next move?

    DYOR+DYODD
 
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