I disagree with your position. I think that if any company reaches positive EBITDA only 9 months into its expanded business plan I believe it provides a certain amount of validation. You should also not directly equate the performance of the stock with its operations alone, as you have indicated it should get rerated by the market when cash flow +ve status occurs, not when they say it will occur. There are also some exteranl factors which might have had an effect on peoples investment decisions lately...
And I find your point regarding EBITDA and cash flows as curious. There is a very definate relationship bewtween them.
As average recieveables are about 30 days (I asked the company) and they apparently have never had a bad debt (again apparently due to connecting to the bigger established carriers in the region such as BT etc) it would indicate that cash flow positive status would be reached 30 days after EBITDA which we have been told will occur in late August/early September.
Therefore, I think you will find both figures positive (EBITDA and cash) in the 1st qtr period.
I am also curious about your continued reference to "investing" cash outflows. You have made the same mistake as the journalist from the AFR in her article on the company. That is in the March quarter ATC had to make a one-off $2.5m payment to Pelican as part of the restructure. There will be no more 'investing activities' so investing cash outflow will be zero.
So that's operating and investing cash flows done. What about capex? It seems that capex will not come from placements, and that placements do not form part of its strategy. Both capex and FNT will be funded by some debt instrument, with a conversion function.
Why do you think they will do it @ 20c 'if we are lucky'? Have you spoken to someone in the company? I would imagine they know perfectly well about what sort or dilutionary effects this would have and also how it would be recieved in the market.
The other thing to remember is that they had in excess of $4.5 mill in the bank, meaning they can wait it out awhile.
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