I have again carefully read the analysis by Bell Potter dated 8th December 2021 and come to the following conclusions
"We have increased our R&D forecasts for FY21-FY23 to account for the cost of a Phase 2 trial for NNZ-2591 in PWS and costs related to foundational activities(including manufacturing) in preparation for Phase 3 in parallel." Page 5
Figure 6 ... Key changes ... FY 2022E old new
7.6 21.9
What I interpret this to mean is that for a single Phase 2 trial starting in FY2022 for PWS ( Prader Willi Syndrome) the cost will be approximately AUS$ 13.3 million.
With our cash position at Dec 31st (just gone) being something less than the $39 mill after recent cash raise (allowing for 3 month's expenses paid), and keeping in mind that our financial year is the same as a calendar year (Jan to Dec) then with "normal" admin expenses and $13.3m going out for just one phase 2 trial in addition to other "normal activity" expenses then by the end of 2022 we will be getting very low on cash .... that is if we don't receive any large lumps of cash coming in from milestone payments and/or ROW deals ...... and we will not have been able to spend the millions necessary for the other 3 x Phase 2 trials.
So I read again the forecasts for cash coming in ... and they are all "fuzzy"... talking about FY2022 /2023 and leading me to conclude that it will be well into 2023 before the large lumps of money actually land in our account.
With our cash position later in the year being such that the bulk of our program of 4 x Phase 2 trials just will not happen, shouldn't Jon be giving us some definitive statements as to our real financial position?
No wonder that we are so "undervalued" ... if we are going to commit to ballpark AUS$50 mil for 4 x Phase 2 trials plus operating expenses then another capital raise before the end of the year could be a real possibility ... unless we do get a big dollop of cash from a ROW deal .. but that is "fingers crossed"
KB
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