Following iron ore cycle, Big recovery ahead, page-2

A sharp correction of over 80% will be followed by a sharp recovery.
Similarly happened to iron ore, crude oil, lithium price will be followed by a sharp recovery over coming months, in my view, from next week as Chinese New Year Holiday ends.

On 6 December 2015, iron ore price bottomed at US$39/t. Days later, BC Iron announced to halt production temporarily. Similarly, CXO announced to temporarily stop mining its Grants pit last month after lithium carbonate price (Jan 24 Chinese futures) bottomed (I believe) at CNY 85,650/t on 7 December 2023.
Surprisingly, the world's largest hard rock producer, Greenbushes, will reduce their production by 100,000 tons of spodumene concentrates, as announced late January.

Bear in mind, Chinese lepidolite production started to shut down around 45ktpa LCE last November, let alone December, January. GS' biggest new supply is from CATL's lepidolite mine (0.27% Li2O grade), their production cost is way above current Chinese lithium carbonate price. No way those new supply will come online at their designed capacity. And another similar new lepidolite project from Gotion, same grade 0.27% Li2O, these two will never produce 240ktpa LCE as they reported. I think they will be lucky to produce 1/3 of their capacity. BTW, Gotion's lepidolite project development is far behind the CATL's.

Iron ore price started a sharp recovery mid 2016, from US$42/t to US$81/t in 6 months, fetched US$95/t in February 2017. GS' forecast of US$38/t for 2016 was completely wrong.

I believe lithium price will follow iron ore price cycle, should start a sharp recovery from next week.

DYOR. ALL IMO.