"looking forward to the down rampers response to this"... I'm not a downramper, but pretty sure that was aimed at me so allow me to retort. This thread poking the bear, really? "No capacity to learn"... really? This from the Charles doomsday cult who have been trudging down from the $6 mountain to $1.20, dragging heavy crosses of economic and strategic ignorance through the streets of HC for all to see. Instead of humility acknowledging your misplaced faith, it's double down time on the government will bail us out... remarkable.
First hint you guys got it wrong wasn't Yangi marginal economics at even high NdPr prices, it was that the lithium price kept rising where RE prices started falling. They are two very different market structures. Lithium supply is spread over many non-Chinese mines that can't keep up with demand and require incentive pricing to explore for and develop required supply. RE market is dominated by a monopolistic swing producer with capacity to meet global demand now and some way into the future.
Monopoly production brings supply chain risk obviously, but China dropping RE prices to protect their market share and downstream RE-magnet value-add is garden variety monopolistic behaviour. Given the very large RE reserves in China, inner Mongolia, Myamar, mineral sand monazite imports etc, there is zero sense in them keeping the price so high as to over-supply the market with competitors and kill the goose lays their golden RE eggs. In strengthening their control of the RE industry inside China (merging RE producers into a few names) closing down environmentally damaging small miners or those operating outside control to cut supply and raise prices in 2019, they cut too hard and so RE prices surged out of their control 2020-22... coinciding as it did with post-covid and climate change focussed EV boom (same sudden boom that lithium).
In response, over 2020-22 china increased RE production quotas by 50% and down came prices (unlike lithium that couldn;t quickly increase supply by 50%). EV sales growth reduction in China last year or so means there is now an over-supply and perhaps RE prices have gone too low, but it's a very high risk gamble to assume China ants Re prices to surge again to anywhere near 2022 highs. China wants an incentive price to maintain RE supply and grow the industry on a sustainable footing imho, and that price is too low for HAS to profitably develop Yangi I'm sorry to say. That is why HAS is back to cash backing and still can't find a dance partner... despite enormous government assistance.
Having an uneconomic deposit at well supplied monopoly controlled market prices is usually a last nail in the coffin, but not so for the HAS walking dead. The West 'needs RE supply chain security', so surely governments will subsidise a loss making Yangi? Wrong for two very important reasons. Firstly, the west will bring on other economic mine supply at prices below Yangi opex over the same time frame it takes to build out downstream RE processing and magnet production. Secondly, the strategic risk of using of RE-permanent magnet motors relying on China is too high for industry and thankfully there are plenty of substitution alternatives (unlike lithium for which there aren't and won't be comparable substitutes for a long time).
On alternative western causing Yangi to remain stillbirth, start with Moutain Pass bringing 7000t NdPr back to Us from China once plant build is completed, 6000t NdPr from Mt Weld expansion going to Texas, plus another 6000t NdPr planned for next Mt Weld expansion, 5000t NdPr from ILU from 2025, Sierra Verde almost complete ionic clay mine 3000t NdPr over two stages, Energy Fuels expanding their US monazite cracking to feed NEo in Europe. That's 23,000t NdPr new western NdPr supply over the next few years ignoring Mt Welds next 6000t expansion. That's a shed load of new western NdPr supply, when in 2020 total global NdPr production was 47,000t , and only about 7000t NdPr was produced downstream in the west.
What about low-cost Yangi competitors... Vietnam just announced plans for -6000t NdPr (and they have the world's second largest ioic clay reserves, could go anywhere), MEI has their foot on the largest, highest grade ionic clay deposit outside Asia that will be good for 6000t Ndpr stage 1 and double that stage 2, and Brazil like elsewhere will discover more ICDs no doubt. Ionic clay can be produced cheaply if you hadn;t noticed. LIN's Kangakunde is a global monster (1Bt @ 2.5% TREO monster in one large pipe, hill sticking out the ground) will cheaply produce 60% REO con with 20% NdPr:TREo ratio just like all the mineral sand monazite producers, except not radioactive like Yangi, and no chemicals being simple gravity separation. A $30M capex, 440ktpa demo plant will run at 2000t NdPr on the smell of an oily rag.. ramp that up to 1.5Mtpa = 6000t NdPr, but could treble that and still have 200 year mine life. PEK Ngualla will add 6000t NdPr to China in con to replace what they lose to the west in Mountain path...
I'm labouring the point sorry, HAS needs more than a little government help. But it's the substitution-meteor exploding into your RE-world that really spells HAS extinction event you dinosaurs are missing. Tesla dropping RE-magnets for ferrite magnets wasn;t just a cold snap, it's RE climate change happening before right your eyes. They are doing a Hitachi style interim substitution waiting for better substitutes to become more cost effective and available. https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/12/20221210-hitachi.html
It's not even RE comparable iron-nitride magnet development risk to really worry about, it's externally excited synchronous motors (EESM) that are as or more efficient than permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM). BMW does a great job with theirs, but they still have the issue of needing brushes to carry AC charge to the rotar. Brushes cause wear, deteriorate and lower performance, even though BMW claim their brushes are held in a sealed unit to prevent dust build-up causing motor damage long term.
It's motors like Mahle's new brushless EESM using a very clever induction system to provide contactless charge to the rotor that will revolutionise PMSM motor alternatives. Combine that contactless technology with their other "permanently high peak power" EESM technology to get world leading energy efficiency and you get what they call the "perfect motor"
The efficiency gains from an EESM come from their ability to turn off all magnetism when cruising at speed, where perm-mag motors are always magnetised and some power is lost mitigating that effect when EVs are cruising. Tesla tries to overcome this by having a RE-PM motor in the front and Induction motor in the rear, so the RE-PM motor can be turned off completely when cruising and thus reduce energy loss. That still means using two motors... by now you should start to understand the attraction for western EV makers to mitigate RE supply risk by simply avoiding RE motors instead of subsidising skinny little pinch and swell ironstones in nosebleed expensive WA... if you capacity to learn that is.
GLTAH
HAS Price at posting:
$1.24 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)
