As an aside, have a look at the size of the disclaimer at the...

As an aside, have a look at the size of the disclaimer at the end....

Most recent communique from Macca's on this ticker

Seems its very very time-critical and whilst it may seem close - their analysis is still less than 50% chance.

Good bet...who knows but a bet for sure

-----Original Message-----
From: IBG Research Support
Sent: Friday, 13 December 2002 9:36 AM
To: IBG MEAL Sales Dnotes; EMG Traders DNotes; FSG MFS Dnotes; FSG MFS Advisors NZ

Subject: OSH - Confirmed - Rumours of 20PJ TXU contract - sent on behalf of Ed Reekie

Importance: High

These notes have been approved for external distribution

Stock: OSH
Current Valuation: $0.75
Recommendation: under / under
Volatility Index: high

Event:
*Confirmation that TXU has signed a 20PJ pa contract for PNG gas (over 20 years)

Impact:
*To get the pipeline up and running the PNG partners (main players OSH 45% and Exxon 39%) need to sign customers to take circa 135 PJ.
*With the TXU contract, they currently have 85PJ (AGL 50PJ, CS Energy 15PJ, TXU 20PJ).
*Those still in negotiating stage are Energex & Comalco (in a combined bid) who are seeking upto 60PJ (of which Comalco would take upto 50PJ). Hence if Comalco now sign, then the pipeline is more or less over the line. We believe that Energex and Comalco are down to the pricing stage of the negotiations and that all other conditions have been met.
*However, time is of the essence. The binding board decision for the go-ahead is being taken in Houston on 20th Jan 2003.
*We are still of the belief that the likelihood of the deal is less than 50%, however there is increasing momentum.
*Finalisation of the pipeline will also be positive to AGL (access to lower gas prices) and negative for STO (lower prices for Cooper Basin gas).
*The new gas will have no impact on earnings until the pipeline is completed in 2006/07.


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