You say, "The market is very very rarely taken by surprise." Yet...

You say, "The market is very very rarely taken by surprise." Yet in a long-term downtrend the market is surprised almost every day. The buyers at any given point wouldn't buy if they expected the price to continue to fall, and the sellers would have sold months ago if they'd known what was coming. Clearly, at any point in time the market doesn't know where the price is heading. If only they'd listen to AlphaCenturian, who apparently knows better than all of them.

Pezz