Tomorrow we should get the news that an existing insto investor *cough* Platinum *cough* got
just under 10% of the company for $4 mill in the recent placement (adding to their existing holding).
Ever since a year ago at the end of last July 2022, when a random “Investor Presentation” was announced a day after the quarterly update, and we had a perplexing 4 day trading halt two weeks later around Long Covid results, we’ve been waiting for a CR to fund a trial shortfall (a trial that subsequently was changed).
Something obviously changed behind the scenes around this time. Either Platinum IMO was sounded out as a cornerstone investor and came back with some stern feedback, or something else fermented a discussion (perhaps Platinum selling 1.3 mill shares) but the two powerful women in the story (CG and BO) likely had a conversation that resulted in:
1. How was the previous $70+ million trial going to be funded to completion ($50 more mill needed) now that the SP was at 10-11c? The supposed no-reveal-on-blinded- data FUTILITY “go” or “stop” catalyst, that was needed to get the SP north of 48c to exercise options, looked like a pipe dream.
2. With all due respect - MD (and some others) should move aside.
3. Perhaps more commercial capability needs to be hired.
The trial redesign, AF hiring and CEO retirement within a couple of months, obviously give clues to the above points in hindsight.
Now we have the CR (around no positive catalyst news - after the SP has slid in the last few months). Granted the CR would have required a couple of months of prep at least (you don’t ring up Morgans and say you want to do a CR tomorrow), it seems that the cornerstone investor held the bargaining power on price.
Now that the seemingly construed deal has been done, and even though there is still risk of ANP stumbling over future trial endpoint hurdles, investing in ANP now seems like getting a 5/4 horse at 20/1 paying odds.
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