ITSA wrote: ”mac9 agreed with me $5 just DMD in Europe”[Please...

ITSA wrote:

”mac9 agreed with me $5 just DMD in Europe”

[Please forgive and/or correct me mac9 if I misrepresent you in the following]

Mac9 provided a simplified “napkin” calculation of a future scenario where ANP could be valued at $5 a share. It involved a lot of assumptions on future shares in issue (dilution), jumping through binary hoops and over hurdles (notably trial outcomes), and the ability of ANP to go from an organisation of about 10 staff, without any operations to a drug manufacturer with a widespread distribution network, without too much dilution on partnerships.

It was a reasonable model imo.

I think imo, most posters/lurkers on this ANP forum can imagine a future scenario where ANP is $5 a share. The question is what probability we give to that scenario.

To simplify as a hypothetical situation, if the real odds were 10% of achieving $5 and 90% of losing all your money, that would give an approximate expected value of 50c, and make 6c a good value investment. But one would still have 90% chance of losing all your money in this example.

It seems you ascribe 100% probability of ANP getting to $5 and conflate future possibility with current value.

Mac9 also posted (on a separate topic) that he thought there was too much attention given to short term share price moves from some members, which might be explained by people having too much invested - in his opinion. He then went on to say that he personally has been invested a long time, is looking at the long term, and can sleep at night because he has invested in ANP an amount with which HE CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.

Interestingly, the calculation/scenario that mac9 illustrated, from memory, provided a projected earnings amount ($500k) which was multiplied by a P/E of 10 to get a $5bill value divided by a billion shares in issue to get the $5 SP. Sarepta have a multibillion MC based on LOSSES of $US 300-500k per year. So a significant part of their current value is based on future drugs/R&D in their pipeline.