Hi BCO,
I am not sure I can help with your questions but I will attempt to.
The below is "as far as I know".
1/ANP has, and is, patenting ATL-1102 to specific diseases and ailments as they are identified to be relative.
ATL-1102 may be available to the scientific community, but they, the community, are still subject to having to have a target disease, and then R&D, and then trials and patents, so if they aren't at the forefront it may not be too appealing to devote energy and resource in that area, where someone(us) is already advanced.
ANP is obviously well-versed and at the forefront in the relevant areas we research and develop so competition is diminished by our advanced research.
So pre-patent we are probably the most advanced in our fields, and post-patent well we don't have to be concerned anymore.
2/Yes, ODD is not possible for RRMS.
3/If the patent you suggest were to expire in 2029 it would then have the potential to have a minimum 5-year extension where countries provide PTE, such as USA and Australia and Europe.
So, depending on the commercialisation date that could possibly provide 5 or 6+ years of exclusivity, and then after that be 1st brand to market, which usually gives the established company a good foothold post-patent expiration.
4/It is possible I am wrong, but I believe that of lesions in MS that newly develop, 80% will be white scar lesions, with 25% of those converting to blackholes/persistent hypointense lesions.
So it might be correct to suggest that approximately 20% of new lesions will be persistent hypointense lesions.
Valuing ATL-1102 for MS is difficult and at best, at this time, can only be educated conjecture, because the dosage, effecting cost, and the frequency affecting cost, are currently not determined.
The expense of the product needs to be subtracted from revenue, which is also difficult to ascertain.
It could be argued that in the USA if 800000 people have RRMS and 25% of those people would benefit from ATL-1102, and that the current range of treatments for RRMS range from US$16k-40k per year , then it could be any price, but based on current figures we could say US$20k we could conclude 800000 divided by 5=160000 X 20000 =USD$3200000000
If you take a model where only 50% of applicable people utilised ATL-1102 then you get 1600000000, minus costs. You could for the sake of the exercise designate a USD$300000000 cost leaving approximately USD$1300000000
In relation to shareholder value, again that is open to conjecture as to how many shares would be issued at that time.
You can theorise a totally different figure, I have no problem with that, and I am open to these figures not being accurate, they are just a midnight extrapolation from hypothetical pricing that may or may not be accurate or even close.
I hope that was at least a little useful BCO.
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