Everybody here it seems is gobsmacked that this company can have...

Everybody here it seems is gobsmacked that this company can have an enterprise value of circa AUD 55 mill (market cap minus cash in the bank with no debt) given the “science”. Why doesn’t Sarepta make a cash offer of 20c per share (net EV under $100 mill USD) and own the “science”? It would be 5% of their $2 billion cash ammunition at present. Here are my 2c reasons (take them or ignore them as I’m not a biotech expert) on why they don’t.

1. Why would someone (an employee or group of employees in Sarepta) want to own that deal and risk pivotal trial failure and it being worth nothing when you can wait until trial success and pay more but not lose your job?
2. Why would you buy the ANP DMD “science” before public revelation that the national phase patents have been granted? Notwithstanding the orphan drug designation in two major markets, the granted patents would extend the protection if granted (especially ex Europe and US) and change the value of potential future cash flows. As yet, according to the 2021 Annual Report, they are all still only filed not approved. The international report on patentability gave a negative on inventiveness of all claims (only a guide).
3. Ionis license contract expires 2023. How does that renewal deal (if any) play out? What is the current deal, exactly?
4. TEVA (previous licensing partner for ATL1102 application to MS) pulled out of their ANP licensing deal in 2010 due to internal clinical trial issues around toxicology of the drug (ostensibly as reported) - albeit at a much higher dosage (200 mg) than DMD dosages. There is still a question mark over toxicology as the TEVA studies were not published it seems.

I agree with Mac9 that the overall biotech sector is suffering and ANP is caught up in this macro trend. I disagree with others here that pivotal trial success and commercialisation and a share of the TAM (total addressable market) is a given.

I also disagree with the paradigm that ANP is the only DMD drug left standing. Parentprojectmd.org list 34 DMD drugs in the pipeline (5 already commercially approved) - of which ATL1102 is one - albeit one with good prospects.