re: for all laf holders I agree. It looks like a great trade...

re: for all laf holders I agree. It looks like a great trade shaping up. I am vaguely aware of the fundamentals pertaining to this project and am pretty confident that the Phillipines is about as risky as they come for getting a megadollar project off the ground.

Getting large, lump sum projects finished without digging into "contingency money" and more, is not uncommon in SE Asia, and as of late, Australia as well it seems.

As far as most developing countries are concerned, lump sum EPC(engineering, procurement and construction) contracts may quickly become "expanding lump sum" as the local contractors, construction staff(usually but not always locals), regulatory bodies, cronies etc, milk the procurement and contract process into the deep red through varying forms and levels of corruption and pilferage.

I have worked in SE Asia for about five years and seen all sorts of bizzare occurings at jobsites. Things like 30 tonnes of fabricated piping going missing somewhere between the fab shop and the jobsite warehouse.

Unfortunately many of the locals in developing countries still have this impression that the large foreign sponsered projects are bottomless pits of money to be exploited, with no concern for the overall development and improvement to the local economy in the long run. Hopefully this mindset will change over time.

I am also not implying that this project will have any of these problems but there is risk of it. This is of course assuming that the debt funding come through and the project proceeds.

Basically you can do your dough on any speculative investment, should a unshakeable view be taken that success is a foregone conclusion and nothing could possibly go wrong. Getting attached to the story is normally an expensive lesson and should be avoided where possible. Been there done that, I now trade with stop losses regardless of how sweet the story may seem and I spend more time looking at trading patterns than ASX announcements.

I bought LAF at 9.1 purely as a chart/technical play and will be out if it can't hold 8.9/9 cents. I am looking for 20 cents in the shortterm and will maintain the position should the trend continue. It looks like a similar story to that of OXR about two years ago.