for newbies (like me), page-12

Sorry, i was away from the world for the weekend!!
Honestly, i know this could be a bad bet, and it does tie into our risk/reward appetites.
I'm a big believer that a well researched risk isn't really that risky, but i am well aware that i as an investor i can start to believe my own Bulls&#t too, so with that disclaimer!
1. Bergen Assets are an investment house, based in New York, Sydney and London
https://www.bergenasset.com/media

Its all a bit "hotcopper conspiracy" theory really, backed by anecdotal price action and Bergen involvement!!.
Not everytime, but as they become a major holder in a stock that stock begins "diluting" to gain "liquidity" to the benefit of accumulators, usually Bergen and management gain stock as the company dilutes.

Its happened to many ASX stocks, where the company seems to be in OK shape, then they sign Bergen Assets as an investor.
The downtrend in price begins as though someone is shorting it, the dilution begins as the price falls, and we have a version of the train wreak that as been UUV's stock price over the passed year or so.

They've just been a bad omen for some stocks, and Aquabotix has been no different so far with them as backers!
That's not to say that our price performance is due solely to their involvement, but they have been involved while the price has tanked and dilution has been rampant, so "its their fault". The Bergen effect.
Like i said, no proof of shaodwy aims by Bergen, its all just HC conspiracy theory. They get mentioned all over HC as bad news!
They are connected, big players though, so we have to hope their input has been what we need moving forward.


2. Durval Tavares, patented the technologies in Aquabotix' name that are used in Swarmdiver.
The company originally floated in the image of Teledyne. Aquabotix aimed to do everything under/on the water.
Priorise military deals
Sell to commercial interests
Retail/hobby users
Sales to all sectors

Since mid-2018, Aquabotix has changed focus to be specifically military only.
A decision was made that Mr Tavares steps down as Chief Technology Officer but all of his holdings remained the same.
So Aquabotix are riding on the technologies and patents the company was founded with (that they also own), and a change was made to focus on the companies perceived strength, military only contracts.
The technology we already have is seen as enough to make this transition succesfully.

3. Moving forward, this is where its at. They will have to tighten belts, employ another engineer or two.
They are gonna have to fill that order with no problems or they are done for, id expect a CR to potentially kick that along, time will tell if my .1c+ call is the value of that CR or if she does dip back into .005c and they raise from there. Both are really possible.

But i'm a bit of a gambler, and in my opinion a bit of good news and this stock is off and runnin', never to return to these levels!!

If they can fill that order and can still take orders for more in the meantime, it might be the start of a beautiful thing.
If that's the last positive announcement we get before the end of the year, the SP will probably dip again aswell, which might bring an opportunity back again in the .004c - .005c range.

We are banking on contacts the company has, devices the sector may need and a heating up of maritme security environment.
At this stage, what I've bought is an underwater drone company that holds patents for a group of devices that may or may not be of use to one of the largest sectors in the world, The Military Industrial Complex!

Even if that interest only ever extends to monitoring a few shipping companies /military ports, it promises to be an exciting stock!
Let alone should they land a deal with a military for bulk orders!!!

So i've bet its going to go up, there is a chance it could come down!
Either way, the next 18 months should be an exciting time for the company.

4. At IPO, Eagle View held a total of 6.5 million units across 6 holdings.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170427/pdf/43hs73ng46jx3v.pdf

As of 11/02/2019, they held 27.5 million across 5 holdings.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190306/pdf/4437yckh4g25h0.pdf

On the 23/07/18 they notified Aquabotix they would cease to be a major holder on the 23/05/19.
In the Notice:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190524/pdf/445bvqw99pwbg2.pdf
the combined total 5 holdings were bundled in with Bergen LLC, together known as "EV" or Eagle View.
At that time those 27 million units were sold.

The biggest holder since IPO has been Long Hill Capital, and 5 days after "EV" sold its holding, Long HIll Capital and Bergen Assets (together "Bergen") bought over 50 million units during that CR run, taking Long Hill to over 100 Million units held.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190529/pdf/445g7vh49j45gm.pdf
They sold 17 million units, back to 89 million units in June
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190614/pdf/445vmpq2rdqlqs.pdf

So perhaps "EV" didn't have the stomach for the upcoming dilution, or had better opportunities elsewhere. They knew Bergen was involved, maybe that was it! The Bergen effect!

Notice Bergen was attached to all changes in substantial holder, both EV and Long HIll!!
Bergen are also heavily involved in DRO, a company that we share board members and sophisticated investors with!

Though they were a major holder since IPO, they weren't the biggest holder at any stage (Long Hill IPO 51 million units v EV 6.5 million).
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170427/pdf/43hs73ng46jx3v.pdf

So overall, the big boys can swish around their holdings and we'll never know why. Some have sold and some have bought. They have obligations to achieve certain returns in a certain time, and maybe EV had to sell.
Cash really does remain an issue, but the company addressing that effectively can only move the SP up, add some more sales and we are out of the .1c range.

If they don't, then you will might right and they falter!

The company does indeed own the patents that make their UUV units unique, and the decision was made by company based Admirals and Industry experts to focus solely on military applications.

They must be aware of the limitations and potential of what they have, and we need to bank on their years of military experience and weapons sales to guide that decision, including how to deliver orders to clients under current conditions.

I've watched this stock since launch, i've been buying since they became military focused, and in my opinion the worst days of that transition to military sales is behind us!

But generally, @verysmallcap, your intuition may be right about the stock and if its too risky for you, i wouldn't buy in!

For me, they have something, someone in the highly funded security/war space might want, and they are focused and positioned to achieve sales of that something, namely water based drones to military users!

What a story this company has ahead should things go even slightly right for them!

At any rate, here's to landing some more sales, and a good run into end of year, with a few more positive announcements!

GLTAH