us demand U.S. Nuclear Power Industry Sees Expansion in Near...

us demand U.S. Nuclear Power Industry Sees Expansion in Near Future
Rising energy demand, pollution concerns improve prospects, officials, industry say



By Andrzej Zwaniecki
Washington File Staff Writer



This is the second in a series of articles on nuclear energy.

Washington -- U.S. energy companies, supported by the Bush administration, are pressing ahead with an ambitious plan for revival of nuclear power, an industry representative says.

"We are very bullish on the prospect that we will see some new nuclear power plant orders coming up in the next couple of years," for the first time since 1978, says Steve Kerekes, a spokesman for the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), an industry group.

With nuclear plants running at 90 percent capacity and demand for energy rising, the industry needs to build new plants to keep up or increase its 20 percent share of the electricity market, he said in a March 23 interview. U.S. demand for electricity will increase by 50 percent between 2004 and 2030, according to the Energy Department.

NUCLEAR OR COAL?

New orders for nuclear plants would be a sign of a turnaround for the U.S. industry, which has stagnated mostly due to factors beyond its control -- licensing and construction delays, high interest rates on capital, varying plant designs, low natural gas prices and public opposition to nuclear energy, according to Andrew Paterson, a U.S. Energy Department policy analyst. For the past 25 years, the industry has added no new plants and focused instead on improving efficiency and safety and increasing production at the existing 103 plants.

But in recent years, conditions have changed, Paterson said in an April 20 interview. Interest rates, despite recent rises, are relatively low; uranium fuel is relatively inexpensive and readily available in Canada and Australia, both U.S. allies; nuclear plants enjoy strong local support in areas where plants currently are located; and there are fewer reactor designs and nuclear companies, making planning and running plants easier, he said.

These factors, plus concerns that greenhouse gas emissions, mostly carbon dioxide, contribute to global warming, favor nuclear energy's expansion, Paterson said.

That expansion has been made more urgent because over the next decade, more than 100,000 megawatt (MW) of less-efficient coal plants will need to be replaced, most likely by a new generation of coal plants, nuclear plants or a mix of both, according to Paterson.

Although newer coal-fired plants cause less pollution than older ones, they still would add a significant amount of carbon emissions. Today, the more than 600 coal-fired U.S. plants emit nearly 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. These plants also release other pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.

In contrast, nuclear plants emit no greenhouse gases or other pollutants. (Uranium enrichment produces some.)

Nuclear energy is likely to displace even more harmful emissions if, as envisioned by the administration, advanced reactors are used to produce hydrogen. Hydrogen-fueled vehicles, with almost no emissions, not only would reduce dramatically the demand for oil but also, as dramatically, would cut harmful emissions from the transportation sector, another major source of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.

"Nuclear is stable, high-quality power, with low marginal fuel costs, not dependent on weather and without emissions," Paterson said.

GOVERMENT ENDORSES NUCLEAR POWER

What makes revival plans more viable, Paterson said, is that the industry is enjoying strong government support for the first time in a long time.

The Bush administration saw that in the long-term the United States would need all the domestic energy resources it could muster to meet rising demand for electricity while lessening reliance on unstable global sources for the bulk of oil and gas supplies, he said.

In 2002, the administration launched Nuclear Power 2010 (NP 2010), a $1.1 billion public-private partnership to identify sites for new nuclear plants, develop advanced nuclear plant technologies and test new regulatory processes. Paterson believes that one or two dozens new reactors can be added at the existing nuclear sites.

However, James Muckerheide, a nuclear engineer and director of the Center for Nuclear Technology and Society at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts, said the U.S. and some other countries' nuclear expansion programs need to be more robust to meet the energy and environmental needs of the future. In a 2005 article, he estimates that the world will need 50,000 MW - 60,000 MW in total nuclear capacity, equivalent of 5,000 to 6,000 one-thousand-megawatt plants. He told the Washington File May 3 the United States is likely to need roughly 5,000 MW - 10,000 MW in nuclear capacity, equivalent of 500 - 1,000 one-thousand-megawatt plants, depending on the scale of future energy demand.

WHAT ARE THE HURDLES?

Utilities planning to add new reactors to their portfolio face significant risks.

The prospect of pouring billions of dollars into construction of a plant, only to have it stopped on a licensing technicality or by a court order, was the top risk cited by industry, investors and experts in a 2002 study for the Energy Department. It indicated that those groups have not shaken off completely the memory of the Shoreham nuclear plant, which was built on Long Island near New York but never became operational and eventually shut down in 1994 after years of regulatory and legal battles to get an operating license.

NEI's Kerekes said the industry sees the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing process established in 1992 as the most immediate issue.

Ten energy companies or consortia have said they will apply to build at least 16 new nuclear reactors, according to a NEI February review. The NP 2010 assumes that, if all goes well, the first new nuclear power plant order will be placed by 2009 and construction of a new plant will be completed by 2014.

See also “Nuclear Gaining Favor as Clean Energy Source for World.”