Look at my posts I have held it many times and plan to hold it again. My only motivations is to counter some of the go go Lynas on this board with absolutely no facts or reasons. Hopefully just one or two will listen and make money on what they hold now and there fore have more money to invest when it becomes a shooting star. Every Company Sector and economy goes through Cycles. To not understand them is a lost opportunity.
Did you read the link? Do you understand just how important the ICE auto industry is to NdPr prices and how important that is to Lynas? I do not care if you believe me or not but IF you did not even think how this may cause a severe delay in NdPr price recovery and how important that is to Lynas then you just are not thinking. Remember these are Cars from Japan with all sort of PMM motors in them from Windows to seats to stearing to fans to AC and the biggest is the starter. Who is Lynas biggest customer? Japan. so are you even thinking about REO price recovery if you are a specialist you should be,
Yes I am thinking well beyond the next Q In fact I am thinking a year or two out. It could be that long before Lynas shows a good cash flow. Now things may recover faster I may be wrong. I have written down what I think will signal recovery, I have also publish all of these so others can think about it. They are . China and US: GDP, auto sales and others. I adjust these continuously. Have you written down the things that could cause NdPr to take much longer to recover. So you can adjust your holding accordingly.
I find your statement "Also, instead of annoying us, perhaps spend the next month learning about rare earths and their importance in a vast array of other industries." Very interesting I bought MCP at their IPO 11 years ago. Before NC had even fully committed to Lamps. Can you name the top three users of NdPr. Now NdPr price has fallen while Lynas was shut down. It has fallen in spite of Japan Gov and a few Japan companies building stock piles to assure supply. So that means Demand is way down. Do you understand what is critical to restart this product flow. Or do you think it will just go up as soon as things return to normal.
Now here is a simple chart of Lynas NdPr monthly prices. Take a careful look at what happened last year before the Virus. this was a time when Lynas out put was restrained by Malaysian restrictions Should not lower output cause higher prices? Look at this chart think what was happening March - December 2019, before virus. and explain NdPr price activity. You can talk all you want about a vast Array of other businesses and I agree there are many but until you know the key industries that account for 75% of demand you just will not get it. Number one Auto. Number two Appliances. I have a broad definition here that includes things from Vacuums all the way up to commercial HVAC units and even elevators. Third is battery operated Tools from small burnishing tools right up through Lawn mowers 12 inch saws and other types of tools.
To be able to see what is happening quickly with Lynas like many stock I hold or are interested in I keep many charts. Which I update at least once a Q. Here is one showing Revenue and Npat profits. In 2019 H2 I subtracted out the loan forgiveness since I am only interested in what they do operationally. Any ideas what this might mean going forward? Interesting that H1 2018 was pre NEXT but never have they matched that Q in Revenue or profits. Note revenue is sales revenue and does not include things like stock sales. If you don't like the way I do it then show the ones you are keeping.
I can always tell hot air posters Start by using insults and vulgarities. Then claims the other party knows nothing. then Claims evil intent by poster. All while never addressing the key point in the original post. In this case that Cars from Japan are backing up in US ports which will slow the demand for NdPr during the recovery. Why don't you address that,? if you are capable.
LYC Price at posting:
$1.72 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)