PLS 2.96% $4.18 pilbara minerals limited

Forecast Earnings Question

  1. 228 Posts.
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    I would appreciate some feedback on the data published by Morningstar on the above security, ASX code PLS. I have noticed that the Earnings per Share Estimate (EPS) on this stock as per both Commsec and Westpac share trading websites indicates the following expectations as at May 9,2022:

    Y/E 30/6/2022 EPS 20.3 (was 18.9 last week, by the way)
    Y/E 30/6/2023 EPS 78.5

    I have been looking to make an investment in this share and the forecast EPS figure plays a big role in my decision making process. I note these estimates are supposed to be from 3 different analysts. However, when I went and did my own quick analysis on these figures I find the Estimate for y/e 30/6/2022 very doubtful, and 2023 fanciful. My reasoning for this is as follows:
    For the half year ending 31/12/2021 the EPS was 3.87 cents per share. I also noted the Quarterly Activities report for the March 2022 period showed a reduction in ore shipped from previous Qtrs. Even allowing for the 20,000 tonnes that missed Q3, and will go into Q4, I cannot get anywhere near the gap required to make 20.3 cents per share. Very simply, the profit for the first half was $114M. To make 20.3 Cents earning per share will need a profit of $483.9M JUST for the second half. Doesn't this seem highly unlikely?.Also to make the 2023 estimate of 78.5 Cents per share would need a net profit of $2,312.4M.
    I would appreciate any feedback.
 
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Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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