1/. 2023 closing price = $24.50
2/. Will Neuren be taken over in 2024? = No (I'm tipping Q1 2025)
3/. If yes,
a which month? = March 2025
b at what price? = Between $10B - $15B USD, closer to $15B.
4/. If no, what will be closing price at end of 2024? =. I think it will be around $60
5/. If a takeover offer was to be made on 31/12/2024 what is the minimum price would you happily accept? = The minimum I would happily accept is $10B USD, which results in a fluctuating SP based on exchange rates but would be circa $125 per share.
I thought this was a really interesting exercise and went back and had a look at a previous post I wrote and that was interesting to reflect on given how far off I was on the post PMS share price - I was far too conservative.
These are my rough guestimates at SP in certain scenarios (and I might have the order or results wrong so feel free to swap Pitt Hopkins and Angelmans) but if everything goes well...
Pre PMS= $17
Post PMS= $21
Pre PH(midyear which includes 2 further quarters of revenue growth) = $23
Post PH= $27
Pre AM(midyear which includes 2 further quarters of revenue growth) = $27
Post AM= $35
At this point I am beginning to apply a significant multiplier effect given the 3 previous successful P2 trials
Pre PW(End of year which includes 2 further quarters of revenue growth) - $40
Post PW- $50
Forecasts 2024, page-7
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Last
$16.15 |
Change
-0.940(5.50%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.064B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $15.04 | $16.33 | $14.65 | $25.91M | 1.638M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 125 | $16.15 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $16.20 | 1500 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 09/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| NEU (ASX) Chart |