Hey Dave, I'm guessing you are Kiwi. I spent 8 months living...

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Cooder

338 Posts.

19/07/18

10:43

Post #: 34442988
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Originally posted by davenz ↑

Ok I was bullish for one last rally in oil by the end of the year, but further research has concluded:

1. Trump and Putin like to give me a headache. They've aligned their plans for oil production/exports for both US and Russia and said they're not going to let prices go any higher.

2. The saudi's have ramped up production sooner than expected to meet global demand: +6% exports in the first half of July to be exact !

3. IMF has reported that global growth rates as a whole will maintain at 3.9%, however, have definitely slowed in developed countries such as some of the Euros, Japan, and even the UK. They also forecast the US economy to deteriorate over the next few years (which we all knew), and China is also on the downhill (which we knew). All this ultimately leading to a drop in demand.

4. Managed funds are still majority net long, so we might not see strong bearish action (yet), but definitely range bound. I also don't think I'll see that last push up I was hoping for. I really thought we were going to get $80pb by the end of 2018..

Still on my watchlist, but I probably won't touch it until either demand/supply gap improves or deteriorates, or something drastic happens.

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Hey Dave, I'm guessing you are Kiwi. I spent 8 months living southside of Dunedin
back in the early 80s. Nice place, great people. Are you south or north Island.
Here's a chart on spot Brent. Bounce overnight but still hard to say if it will carry through.
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