Some random quant for the thread:
Yesterday the VIX closed at 9.6
In the history of the VIX from 1/01/1990 (6944 trading days) there have been 25 other occasions when it has closed at or below this value (5 of which are in the last 8 trading days).
On a frequency basis, 99.6% of the time the VIX trades above these levels which infers the risk is firmly to the upside.
Caveat: The VIX is a proxy for percieved market risk. If we are currently witnessing a major market bull cycle (which I believe we are), then 27years data is in my view a small sample.
