I agree tonkin. This share has been unashamadely capped time and...

I agree tonkin. This share has been unashamadely capped time and time again, from prior to the C/N deal last year. With big obvious capping points at 38cps multiple times.

There is probably someone who has been waiting, watching trying to keep the SP low as to launch a T/O offer when the time was right. It seems like now is the time. GDO has de-risked in the past year to such a degree that it is probably 3 times as valuable as this time last year, yet, we are only 30% higher SP.

In terms of how can this be worth 3 times more than this time last year, *THIS IS WHAT HAS CHANGED*

This time last year
Cash flow negative risking insolvency
Strike risking insolvency
Unsecured debt (C/N put option) risking insolvency
Consistently missing production guidelines (risking insolvency)
Gold overbought at 1100-1200

NOW
Cash flow positive (likely 60+ mill profit)
Well trained black work force 100% BEE compliant and archetypal company for how the BEE policy CAN work if implemented well
Debt Secured and very likely to be converted into equity so theoretically debt free
Hit production targets 2 1/4's in a row (assuming we make this 1/4 which is all but guaranteed)
Gold at 1400 but not overbought

If I was a major company with real pulling power, broker friends and a wad of cash, I wouldnt buy a company that was still risky like GDO 2010. I would wait until their cash flow was proven and do my best to cap the bejeezus out of it in the meantime. If the company failed I would just walk wash my hands of company and look elsewhere.

If the company consistently de-risked and did everything it had to to become a quality business (GDO 2011), I would do my darndest to keep the share price low. If I could achieve this (it definitely has been achieved with GDO), I would then "come to the rescue" of current share holders by offering to buy the company at a very very lucrative price compared to the company's SP but at a low ball price compared to intrinsic value of the assets.


I would also suggest that if there was a T/O it would be someone who is doing their dealings through SA brokers, as this is the first time in the last 12 months that the ASX has been following the JSE in terms of price. No matter how 'secretive' negotiations are someone always gets a whiff.

Even the past two days where GDO.AX dropped a little on pretty big volume, GDO:SJ has consistently been making 52 week highs, made its highest close three days in a row and its highest weekly close this year as well.

No matter what the outcome is, GDO is about to get a whole lot more interesting.

Buckle in lads, its time to go for a ride!

This is just pure speculation of what MIGHT be happening. Either way there is primarily upward pressure on the SP for multiple reasons. This company has a long way to go yet before its run its race imo.