forming a base at 3.7c, page-5

Barry (From shares.com.au)
Member Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 142

Quote:

Guys,

My own worst case scenario for share price at end December '07 is 4-5 cents & the best case is 10-20 cents per share. The worst case scenario assumes fairly bland/non specific company updates BUT that the Chinese resume buying to increase their stake after the rights issue. The best case assumes a specific target zone of a few million ounces re the 2.5K stretch between Glen Mills & Sunnyside combined with some mention of future production schedule , plus an indication of corporate activity regarding Merrimac and/or Benambra. The current "target zone" or "exploration potential" (340,000 - 720,000 ounces) relates only to the "humps" at Glen Mills & Sunnyside & excludes any potential re the 2.5K stretch between the 2 hills !!! In my opinion, the following wording in SML's announcement dated 22 August 2007 is significant - - -"to determine feasibility of PRE-RESOURCE PRODUCTION" !!

My worst case scenario for end December 2008 is 1-4 cents which assumes disappointing updates through 2008 combined with no corporate activity eventuating from Merrimac and/or Benambra. The best case scenario is 25- 50 cents which would require confirmation of a "resource" or "reserve" exceeding 1M ounces with the possibility of further exploration potential, plus material shareholder value add from Merrimac and/or Benambra.

These are my personal deductions based on publically available data, & what I have attempted to glean directly from the company (with limited success !).
I have consistently discounted all other "rumors". I would advise people not to act on the above but to await the pending company announcements. There are seldom any guarantees with investment & I have been known to get it as wrong as the next guy.

Cheers,

Barry
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No offence Barry...but....

Where is the evidence Re your comment "BUT that the Chinese resume buying to increase their stake after the rights issue."?.............
Are they buying?...All I see is possibly the co. broker or dt's propping the price for the spp?...perhaps?..ehehehehe
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Where is Washington now? The ONE whom suggested the 4.2 mil oz resource? A truly wild silly guess and no doubt just another pumper who has sold their holding by now to the unknowing! Multi nicking I understand now? Get the message? Most of these people will (suggest) that they still own particular stocks to "calm" the others. I did notice that a couple of SML nics were also caught with multi nics and banned.
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re: "the target zone of a few million ounces re:the 2.5K stretch between Glen Wills & Sunnyside"....
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You are no doubt are aware how much drilling and costs/time/years/raising's/dilutions/etc will be incurred to forming anywhere near/close to these figures? If they can? What was their latest jorc figure? 55000thou oz?...with limited drilling since?...Please correct me if I am wrong.
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re: the Coffee Report"...it is all "conceptual in nature"...does not tell you about dollars/cap raising's/dilution etc and how long it will take to form up these figures suggested, (if) they can be substantiated....simple...
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re: "These are my personal deductions based on publicly available data, & what I have attempted to glean directly from the company (with limited success !).
I have consistently discounted all other "rumors"......
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Hmmm. once again..jorc..55thou oz. with very minimal drilling since this was last reported....Can't change that much and will not.
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re: "My worst case scenario for end December 2008 is 1-4 cents which assumes disappointing updates through 2008 combined with no corporate activity eventuating from Merrimac and/or Benambra. The best case scenario is 25- 50 cents which would require confirmation of a "resource" or "reserve" exceeding 1M ounces with the possibility of further exploration potential, plus material shareholder value add from Merrimac and/or Benambra".
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IMO There will no doubt be limited disappointing updates (to some)..The region as many know, has high yielding, narrow/short veins of gold/silver in abundance. What you need to be careful of is that the co. cannot and will not confirm a 1.0 + mil oz resource by end DEC 2008. They have not done the drilling/expense/ to get anywhere near these figure...IF they can eventually get there?..It takes companies many years and huge dollars to form up resources of this magnitude!
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Now downside does not dis-agree with where prices will or will not go, however the miss-information that has been published on certain "chat sites" in relations to what they (SML) have in resources is misleading new investors.

Be careful out there!