I reckon I know as much about markets as the next guy and I...

I reckon I know as much about markets as the next guy and I wouldn't dare predict where markets are going to go but if you use your common sense it's not too hard to predict when to buy something ,maybe a little more difficult to predict when to sell something ,but not that hard nonetheless .People try to make things too complicated generally to cover up the fact that they're guessing,as everyone is .Of course the short term trading that you specialise in CF is more a technical skill which I acknowledge is outside the sphere of my expertise