fortune oil going troppo, page-45

Pchu, regarding the $1 price, this was what I put forward in the tipping contest. It was based on the 900m shares and the company having a capital value of $900m-$1000m based on 500Pj of 2P reserves, which still believe is very achievable given the projects and the strategy being developed. this was preconsolidation days, it is based on the 180m shares and the company having a capital value of $900m-$1000m based on 500Pj of 2P reserves, then the share price should be around $5.

In relation to the comparison I made with ESG, you are absolutely right that ESG has the MOU you with Macquarie. But that is why ESG has twice the capital value of MPO. I have taken the view that MPO's current price reflects reserves only and no real contracts of substance. So if MPO can get 2P certification, it can also begin entering into contracts

As I posted on the BUL post, I have a strong view that AGL will be making a play for a CSG company to get reserves so ensure supply for its customers. AFR on the weekend indicated that AGL is suffering big time due to it being a marketer of gas rather than a supplier and subject to the pricing structures etc of STO etc. I would expect the board to be looking at a takeover of an CSG company as one of its options.

Whether AGL comes after MPO, ESG, MEL, BUL SGL etc, any move will see a complete rerating of the CSG sector and a new price level. The sooner MPO can get 2P certification and increase the value of the company, the higher it will move when AGL comes.

Again it is 2P reserves that are the critcal factor and this combined with a revised view of the CSG sector, will make MPO and the other companies worth a lot more than they are today.

As to the consolidation, makes no difference to me, but in the longer term benefical to the company.

MPO is a keeper