around the traps ... with the ferret

  1. 4,756 Posts.
    Around the Traps ... with THE FERRET
    08:08, Wednesday, 15 June 2005

    Sydney - Wednesday - June 15: (RWE Australian Business News) -
    *****************************

    Investors must have liked what they saw in the weekend beauty
    parade of new TELSTRA (TLS) boss Solomon Trujillo.

    The shares rose a further 9c to to $5.17 yesterday, making a
    total 10c since the announcement.

    That makes him a $1.2 billion-dollar man.

    The headline writers, meanwhile, are having the customary
    pun-fest.

    We've already had "Heir to the phone", "Sol searching" and "Sol
    mate".

    It's only a matter of time before we see "Wisdom of Solomon".

    *****

    We like reading companies' complaints about share price because
    of the creative writing.

    AAV (AVV) had its annual meeting yesterday and chairman Bob
    Mansfield recounted to shareholders how directors became aware during
    the second half of the 2004 year that the expected results were not
    going to be up to "our expectations, nor to market expectations".

    "On 26 October 2004, we announced the first of two profit
    warnings to the market that the results for 2004 would be lower than
    market expectations," he said.

    "The market reaction to the first profit warning went well
    beyond the expectations of your directors as to its effects on the share
    price.

    "We saw our share price drop some 28 per cent, from around the
    mid $2 mark to $1.74 the very next day.

    "Since that date the share price has crept lower to around $1.40
    just prior to Christmas, when the second profit warning was announced.

    "Since that period and consistent with the decline in the overall
    ASX Small Cap index, our share price has drifted lower to around $1.18
    per share.

    "Your directors are very concerned at the fall in the AAV share
    price following these announcements and have commenced a process designed
    to restore market confidence in the company and to increase
    earnings in the future."

    The chairman should have quit while he was, er, ahead.

    AAV plunged a further 23c to as low as 95c yesterday before
    closing at $1.07.

    The company also announced at the annual meeting that the
    one-off charges from the sale or closure of underperforming assets would
    cause a loss of around $30 million in the June half.

    Yup, two profit warnings followed by a loss warning, all within
    eight months, is not good for a share price.

    *****

    Now here's something we haven't heard for a while from an
    Australian exploration company.

    BEACH PETROLEUM (BPT), as operator of PEL110, yesterday advised
    the ASX that the spudding of Yanerbie-1 well had been delayed ... due to
    rain!

    *****

    TAWANA RESOURCES (TAW), which yesterday announced the discovery
    of a 4.66 carat diamond, had some useful advice for other explorers.

    Explaining the discovery, the company pointed out it had
    previously advised that statistical analysis of the diamonds recovered
    from the alluvials strongly indicated that larger diamonds would be
    recovered once larger volumes of samples had been processed.

    This is due to the "nugget effect" which requires larger samples
    to recover the larger and more valuable diamonds.

    The formula, according to Tawana, is:

    Small samples = smaller diamonds;

    larger samples = larger diamonds.

    Now everybody got that?

    Tawana shares rose 2c to 85c.

    *****

    We often complain how companies tend to muddy their profit
    warnings.

    However, QUEENSLAND COTTON (QCH) is a good example of a company
    telling it how it is.

    It said unfavourable weather had resulted in a reduced outlook
    for full-year net profit of $10 million, based upon last year's
    accounting standards.

    "While this outlook is 60 per cent above the company's result for
    the 2005 year ($6.3 million), it is below early expectations of an
    operating profit after tax in excess of $15 million, on an equivalent
    accounting basis," it said.

    The shares fell 25c to $4.12.

    *****

    The interest rate reared its ugly head again yesterday after RBA
    Governor Ian Macfarlane's speech, "Global Influences on the Australian
    Economy".

    As a result JP Morgan advised clients the RBA was "unlikely to
    move the cash rate in either direction any time soon".

    Maybe even hold them steady in an unchanged position as well,
    eh?

    Meanwhile, NAB's Quarterly Business Survey said that provided the
    May Survey results didn't prove the start of a new upward trend in
    domestic demand, "we continue to see the RBA's next move as downwards, a
    cut of 25 points in early 2006.

    "The onset of a more serious drought does, however, provide the
    possibility of the timing of that cut being brought forward to late
    2005."

    *****

    Fat-drug developer METABOLIC PHARMACEUTICALS (MBP) paid the
    price of a $10 million placement to institutional and professional
    investors at 61c a share.

    The shares promptly fell 6.5c to 63c before closing at 64c.

    Shareholders will also participate, via a $10 million share
    purchase plan at 61c.

    Metabolic rose from 61c to 91c last month (and was queried
    halfway at 77c), but has been spiralling downwards again since.

    (Comments and complaints to [email protected] - no requests
    for advice please.)

    ENDS

    Copyright © 2005 RWE Australian Business News. All rights reserved.
 
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