SEA sundance energy australia limited

Forward Estimares - Post CR - Post Q2 Qtrly

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    Before I post any update I need a little (a lot?) of help in deciphering the cryptic that is the Q2 report when matched to the CR Investor presentation. Now I know the CR presentation is a "plan" and the Qtrly is a representation of what actually happened in the Qtr but its hard to accept the scope of the differences.

    Slide #20 from CR preso (which by the way was released on June 1 - so 2/3rds of the way through Q2) is pretty explicit as a Proforma.
    * $17.9M to be spent on development (of which $1.2M is infrastructure)
    * spud 2 net wells & complete 3 net wells and implied that is McMullen County

    Slide 13 notes 69 PDP wells and 3 DUCs in the EFS
    Slide 24 notes 26 PDP wells and 3 WoCs that are Sundance operated in the ** with avg WI of 85.8%

    Now the Q2 Qtrly on page 5, Exploration and Development:
    EFS:
    * participating in the completion of 11 gross (3.6 net) non-operated wells ... (so ~ 32.7% WI)
    * WoC of 7 gross (6.6 net) operated wells .... (so ~94.3% WI)
    * Of those 18 gross wells, 17 will enter production in Q3 and 1 in Q4
    * Refrac 5 gross (4.7 net) wells with SLB in Q3

    NO MENTION of the spud of 2 new wells from the CR in Q2 or the additional well to be spud in Q3.

    And SLOPPY REPORTING which ought to be corrected as its material as they have transposed the Gross & net well numbers of the EFS with **.

    Should read for Gross Wells
    Period:
    Q4'15 : ended with 95 Producing + 15 WoC
    Q1'16: started with 95 + 0 new producers + drilling 1 new + 15 WoC
    Q2'16: started with 95 + 0 new producers + ???? **** not how it is reported ***

    I think it might be

    ==> Q2'16: starts with 95 + 0 new producers + drilled 2 new + Completing 11 + 7 WoC
    That makes 18 WoC being the 15 WoC carried over plus the 1 well drilled in Q1 plus the 2 wells spud in Q2 (I think)
    Then you get Q3'16 entering with a backlog of 18 wells (15 Woc from Jan 1 plus 3 new wells)

    ==> Q3 starts with 95 + 17 new producers + 0 new drilled (hope not see CR #20) + 1 WoC


    **:
    * notes that began completing 3 gross (2.7 net) wells late in Q2 and had an additional 2 gross (o.2 net) wells WoC.

    Unsure what to make of the comment that SE operated 68.7% of its ** production for the Qtr given its average 85.8% WI.


    All the above is messing up my attempt at forward production guidance. On the money till Q2 but now confusion reigns supreme. Does one chuck out the CR presentation and proforma? Whats the likelihood of ** sale in Q3???

    Ideas/thoughts will be appreciated.

    GFTA.
 
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