thanks C33. Usually don't do share price projections, but real...

thanks C33.

Usually don't do share price projections, but real companies that produce real and reliable free cash flows are the companies to buy. But at what price?

calculated as:
FY17 FCF estimate ~US$50M (not accounting for taxes)
Estimated 1.2B shares (fully diluted inc SPP) out at $US$0.10 per share = US$120M of MC
Debt drawn = US$192M
Cash = $40M
Estimated EV = US$272M

Couple of quick Free Cash Flow numbers then:

Free Cash Flow Yield = Free Cash Flow / EV = 18.38%
EV to Free Cash Flow multiple = 5.44x

That suggests to me that ~15cps is roughly about fair value on a forward looking basis if I was to pay up to say a 6.5x multiple.

I'll be keeping that in mind if there occurs some future dip due to temporary macro issue. I like to have a moat in place for my buy-in price.