Forward Fundamentals, page-9

'tis me again !

Lets have a guesstimate at the Sept Qtr results bearing in mind:

(a) that net debt 30th June was $91.759 mil (annual report)
(b) that estimate of outgoings for Sept Qtr was $16.192 mil (similar to the June Qtr)
(c) that revenue for the June Qtr was $30.013 mil (June Report)
(d) cash increase for June Qtr was $7.062 mil (June Report)
(e) Cash at 30th June was $21.595 mil (hence net debt of $91.759 mil)
(f) that no adverse anns. have been made since the annual report.

Given:
(1) the above as a basis for Sept Qtr guesstimate
(2) that Gold, Lead & Nickel have all improved pricewise during the Sept Qtr
(3) that incremental production and recovery rates are expected
(4) that there is a 6 month hedge in place at about $140 AUD oz above current POG to Dec 2016#

Then:
-we can reasonably assume that the Sept Qtr revenue will be 10% better than that of the June Qtr

So my guesstimate is:
Revenue:..................................$33 mil
outgoings................................$17 mil (see June report)
Cashflow...............................+$16 mil
cash in bank............................$37.5 mil
Leaving a net debt of..............$85.75 mil
(net debt is a constant and it is up to management how it divides cash & gross debt)

This should see the SP revisit 20c+ , IMO.

See heading post for 12 month forward guesstimate.

It'll be an exciting few weeks until the ann of the Sept quarterlies so good luck to all.
And as always, this is IMO only.

#This will be triggered, IMO, for Oct & Nov.