Here is another potential scenario, using my latest financial...

Here is another potential scenario, using my latest financial model, considering the likelihood of further expansion beyond the 12ktpa stage.

Production and pricing inputs:

2ktpa for 3 years (2023/4/5)
12ktpa for 3 years (2026/7/8)
25ktpa for the remainder, out to 30 years LOM

Pricing varies from $50k/t to $20k/t




This time, the scenario includes the 2ktpa stage, in order to be more realistic.

Key inputs:
- Capex = US$210M + US$37M contingency for the 10tpa expansion, to reach 12ktpa total ($70M per year for 2023/4/5)
- Capex = US$270M + US$47M for a further 13ktpa expansion, to reach 25ktpa total ($90M per year in 2026/7/8)
- Opex = US$6000/t in yr 1, increasing by 2% p.a.
- Admin, Sustaining Capital, Royalty and Tax rates basically as per PEA, with admin and sust. cap increasing at 2% p.a.


Key outcomes summarised in the following chart are:
- Total annual revenue
- Total annual costs, including tax and royalties
- Annual net profit (on a 100% Puna Mining basis)
All figures are not discounted
Costs and net profit incorporate Capex



Same data displayed cumulatively:




Key takeaways imo:
- In this potential scenario, net profit after just 10 years totals US$2.4Billion; 90% AGY share >$2B
- LOM net profit >US$6B; 90% AGY share >$5.5B
- Inclusive of capex (and all contingency), 2023/4/5 are basically "break-even" years (effectively paying for the 10ktpa expansion), with hundreds of millions then flowing in annually:

(US$Millions)
- Note significant profits even while self-funding an expansion to 25ktpa (construction spend (total US$317M) included above for 2026/7/8)

- That sort of cash flow (90% of it as per AGY's share) will enable significant growth and expansion for AGY over time; at Rincon, nearby, or elsewhere, imo.


Again, those who are interested in trying to find the puzzle pieces and assemble the puzzle, feel free to ask questions or present other inputs to assess; others (you know who you are) who want to clutter the thread with irrelevant BSneed not apply.


Not advice
DYOR
DYOMaths

GLTAGenuineLTH

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