Here is another potential scenario, using my latest financial model, considering the likelihood of further expansion beyond the 12ktpa stage.
Production and pricing inputs:2ktpa for 3 years (2023/4/5)
12ktpa for 3 years (2026/7/8)
25ktpa for the remainder, out to 30 years LOM
Pricing varies from $50k/t to $20k/t
This time, the scenario includes the 2ktpa stage, in order to be more realistic.
Key inputs:- Capex = US$210M + US$37M contingency for the 10tpa expansion, to reach 12ktpa total ($70M per year for 2023/4/5)- Capex = US$270M + US$47M for a further 13ktpa expansion, to reach 25ktpa total ($90M per year in 2026/7/8) - Opex = US$6000/t in yr 1, increasing by 2% p.a.- Admin, Sustaining Capital, Royalty and Tax rates basically as per PEA, with admin and sust. cap increasing at 2% p.a.
Key outcomes summarised in the following chart are:- Total annual revenue - Total annual costs, including tax and royalties
- Annual net profit (on a 100% Puna Mining basis)
All figures are not discounted
Costs and net profit incorporate Capex 
Same data displayed cumulatively:
Key takeaways imo:- In this potential scenario, net profit after just 10 years totals US$2.4Billion; 90% AGY share >$2B
- LOM net profit >US$6B; 90% AGY share >$5.5B
- Inclusive of capex (and all contingency), 2023/4/5 are basically "break-even" years (effectively paying for the 10ktpa expansion), with hundreds of millions then flowing in annually:
(US$Millions)
- Note significant profits even while self-funding an expansion to 25ktpa (construction spend (total US$317M) included above for 2026/7/8)
- That sort of cash flow (90% of it as per AGY's share) will enable significant growth and expansion for AGY over time; at Rincon, nearby, or elsewhere, imo.Again, those
who are interested in trying to find the puzzle pieces and assemble the puzzle, feel free to ask questions or present other inputs to assess; others (you know who you are) who want to clutter the thread with irrelevant BSneed not apply.Not adviceDYORDYOMathsGLTAGenuineLTH$$$$$$$$$$$$
