The net spend is just leverage to hole depth and location. The same offshore well would require a multiple of the budget. A better way to have a crack at risked value post farm out is using the drill target figures
Assume
$5 Barrel oil equivalent value
IVZ share 40% post farm out
I took a guess at different COS based on previous wells.
Main Target Upper Angwa
Chance of Success (COS or geological success) post Seismic = 20%
4.4 Tcf and 187 mmb (divide gas volume by 6 for barrels)
920 mboe
Secondary Target Pebbly Arkos
COS = 10%
1.4 Tcf and 60 mmmb
293 mboe
Tertiary Targets Forest Dande Lower Angwa
COS = 5%
0.411 Tcf
1.6 Tcf
0.391 Tcf
3 mmmb
403 mboe
Risked value using sum of parts for single well with multiple targets
$5 * 920 * 0.2 *0.4 plus $5 * 293 * 0.1 * 0.4 plus $5 * 403 * 0.05 * 0.4
$466M risked value....
Ive seen additional risked valuations add an additional recovery factor to these estimates to account for the target not fully translating into a 1C or 2C recoverable resource. Other valuations account for the primary target only. But then Ophir (and others) exceeded a stacked gas target by 55% so it can work both ways....Even accounting for main target only, lower recovery, lower COS, less well share its hard to massage a risked value for IVZ below $100M.
I think IVZ will end up with 700 to 800M shares fully diluted including performance options, a lot depends on what price they raise at pre drill.
Links;
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191106/pdf/44b9yp36w21vl4.pdf
https://www.ophir-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Ophir-AGM-Presentation-FINAL.pdf
