Good piece of research. $1.08 NPVWe consider a production...

Good piece of research. $1.08 NPV

We consider a production scenario with first production in FY24e, and first full year of production in FY25e to deliver earnings of US$81M.• We have derived a risked valuation of $0.65 per GEN share (0.6x NPV). Our valuation is underpinned by an unrisked NPV8 (real) of A$642M for Baniaka in the base, assuming first production in FY24e, LT iron ore price of US$80/t and AUDUSD of 0.75.• Considerable valuation upside potential: successful exploration at GEN’s southern hub would facilitate a high-grade DSO operation at scale.

We initiate coverage of GEN with a Buy recommendation and price target of $0.65/share. The company is rapidly progressing development of its flagship Baniaka project with its scalable, high grade, and low-cost iron ore projects, significant exploration potential, and proximity to existing operating infrastructure.• Catalysts for the stock include: 1) update on resources and maiden reserves; 2) updates on marketing, offtake; 3) pre-feasibility study; 4) FID, construction decisions for Baniaka; 5) infrastructure updates including rail and port.