Trundernorsk,
Your post is a fascinating example to me of Confirmation Bias.
You want to believe in the story so all these extra announcements of feasibility studies and validation affirm that Anteo are on the path of success.
I see it somewhat differently and perhaps, and although I have no tie to any outcome of the company,I suffer from confirmation bias because I like a good argument
I had started a new thread about confirmation bias but think it better my post be in this thread so we can see 2 contrary confirmation Biases in place. Yours and mine.
I am hoping it wont come off as inflammatory
As a shareholder of a particular stock we are all looking and researching for affirmation that our investment is a wise one and a safe one.
I know I do it.
We tend to trend with others on stock forums with the same sentiments, we look for research articles or google keywords into search engines to validate our thinking , even check social connections that will support our analysis that our investment is a smart move.
I am not sure that it is a smart move but Confirmation Bias is on all the stocks I read on HC.
ADO has some great examples of confirmation bias posts and threads.
Just a glance down this months threads and apart from yours, we have
Global Endorsement for Mixngo Technology
Apple & the Butterfly
Alere and POC for Antibiotic Resisant Bacteria
Philips sells lighting division
Bioadhesives
Mention of Philips in ADO Investor Presentation
All pretty much looking to affirm that Anteo is a worthwhile investment.
Nothing new, for the HC ADO forum. (You don't call yourself "adorites" for nothing.)
However, it has just occurred to me that your company is now doing the same thing.
The company has been pumping out the announcements lately and while this is usually a good thing, but could the company itself , be guilty of peddling confirmation bias.
Since the "Interim Half yearly" ( still no 'Final Half Yearly ), Anteo have averaged 1 announcement per week.
One on a new distribution agreement ,2 on the same feasibility study, another on an extension of a feasibility study, 1 on a new patent and 1 on a endorsement of their technology and now another research partnership
None of them earth shattering, none are promising income but all dressed up pretty and nice, affirming the technology.
You and others laud this new affirmation of the technology, but imo, the time for affirming the technology should be well past.
The glue technology works, but is it worth anything
Anteo have often stated that they have well over 100 companies testing their product and some were supposed to be perilously close to saying yes 2 years ago.Those feasibility studies were never announced individually, so why these?
What are the outcomes of the previous 100 companies testings?Still ongoing?
Are management themselves worried about closing deals and looking to do some Confirmation Bias for the market?
I started to think of reasons why they might be worried.
Here is my confirmation bias.
No Cash Flow
The company announced its first 2 licensing agreements more than 5 years ago with Merck and Bang labs that have produced little revenue to this day.
It claimed in same year 2010 of up to 47 other companies assessing companies technology and "some perilously close" to making a decision on yes or no.
It was 2 years before the next licensing agreement was signed (BBI) and still no revenue to speak of.
Company's technology validated but not lucrative
The company has validated technology but is it really worth anything?
In last 5 years Over 100 companies have investigated, 3 license deals have been signed but little or no revenue.
Could it be that while having some use in some niches, it's not really worth the hassle for companies to upgrade with MixnGo technology
There have been plenty of validated technologies that have littered history with failure
Bubble memory , Betamax and even Google Glass are past and present examples of validated technologies that have gone nowhere.
Surely, this "game changing technology" of MixNGo would have been recognised and taken up long before now if it saved companies so much
The company's most promising near time client, Phillips, might not actually make them that much even if taken up.
As Oslo mentioned in the Royalties thread, it might take a lot of time and a lot of tests for POC1 to generate sufficient revenue to be cash flow positive. Can the company survive another let down in revenue projection?
The company no longer believes it's product are a company maker.
Anteo, after first projecting large commission fees each year from different markets in it's promotions and presentations, it is now looking to acquire a profitable company in which it can assimilate its product.
This a new strategy and possibly one necessitated by the failure in uptake of it's product as hoped
The company took advantage a cap raising as a result of a super positive
HOT BBI announcement which saw it's SP rise and bulked up its own worth.
This gave it scope and idea for a acquisition plan
Could the problem be now , a decreasing MC of $80 mill and limited cash and no cash flow making a viable acquisition harder ?
Could the company be generating a lot of these self belief and self worth announcements to get the market's confidence back up, so it could proceed with its survival plan?
Is there hope for any other near term revenue?
If not, is the market cap still way to high?
Am I just trying to be a pain in the ass?
