Fourth purchase in the past 3 months

Today I made my fourth purchase of TPG shares since the full year result in September.

So far my average purchase price is $7.80. With today's closing price at $6.61, I'm already down 15%.

TPG currently represents 2.3% of my portfolio.

Although there will be a lot of capital expenditure that TPG has to make in the near to medium term, I'm quietly confident of TPG's long term outlook.

These are my reasons:
- Too much focus is put on the TPG Consumer business, when in reality the Corporate business is now bigger than the Consumer business and has been growing organically consistently in the past few years. The Corporate business will be less affected by the NBN.

- TPG's own FTTB had recently been relaunched in September 2016. With such a simple pricing structure, I believe it shouldn't encounter too much difficulty in attracting customers. The risk here is not rolling out the network fast enough.

- TPG's entry into Singapore's mobile market. With a total investment of around S$405 million over the next 2 years (S$105m for spectrums + S$300m for network build), TPG has the chance to build a new source of revenue/profit. With such a welcoming and supportive regulatory regime in Singapore, TPG has a higher than normal probability of succeeding in establishing itself and become viable.

- TPG's build of Vodafone's dark fibre network extension should finish by end of 2018. The $400m capital expenditure, although substantial at the moment, should be followed by years of strong operating cashflows. Once the network is completed, there will be minimal incremental costs in running it.

- Although some customers are not too impressed by the customer service provided by TPG & iiNet, from the point of view of TPG shareholders, what TPG has done so far with iiNet, is very pleasing. Within a short 11 months, iiNet's EBITDA margin has grown from 18% to 24%. As for the risk of customers leaving iiNet/TPG, overall, I believe this risk is overstated. In reality, with Telstra and Optus being generally more expensive, there are really not that many choices left in the Australian broadband market.

- Amendment to existing bank facility should also reduce TPG's substantial finance costs. It is actually quite remarkable that after swallowing iiNet for $1.5b, within 1.5 years, TPG's ratio of Net Debt / EBITDA has gone down to 1.6.

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Whether or not my view on TPG is correct or not, time will tell (So far, I have been too early in my buying). If TPG stays around this level or go down even further, absence of other opportunities, I plan to slowly build my position in TPG by buying extra parcels of TPG shares once every month as funds become available.

Please feel free to criticise my investment thesis. I'm all ears to any contrary views!