AFR - Morgan Stanley
The analysts took the retailers' accounts for the year to December 31, 2019, then adjusted them for subsequent dividends paid, additional capital restructures, and estimated cashflows over January and February.In conclusion Morgan Stanley estimated that Accent Group, Pacific Smiles, Reject Shop and Bapcor are the most at risk of potential capital raisings given they have between 4.8 and 8.3 estimated months to operate before existing cash and debt facilities run out.
Estimated number of months retailers can operate on existing cash and debt reserves. Morgan Stanley
The analysts also acknowledged the companies could secure additional debt facilities as an alternative to equity raisings.
The companies best positioned to withstand the downturn on the broker's analysis are City Chic, Premier Investments and Kathmandu. They have 27.9, 24.8, and 22.7 months of available liquidity, assuming the metrics around revenue falls and CODB.
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