PAR (ASX) France and OA

here are two schools of thought when it comes to investing and using information as a guide to how to select stocks and subsequent decision making once you own them....

1) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

2) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Fundamental analysis uses company reports, the Balance Sheet, the Cash flow statements, it looks at Management Account and Investment ratios to try and ascertain what a company is worth.

Technical are the Chartists...what are the patterns, what are lines of support...what are some of the many indicators saying...what channels are we in....when is a good time to buy...to sell....and maybe just to hang on?

I try and use a mix myself but you know what? I need to use less of those two and more of another.....what is the third school of thought Mozz?

Both of those above approaches are predominantly historical...nah....I want to use those but I want to mainly look at FUTURE GROWTH. The stock market too looks forward...in the middle of the pandemic we see ourselves at record levels in terms of Market Indexes in the USA....the market knows we are in the midst of high unemployment but it knows there is hope and we will get out of this mess one day.

Tonight Paradigmers, as an example, let's take a look at France for some insight about where we might be heading...

France forms part of Europe and this will be duly covered by the EMA. We have already started work in this area...the steps from here is to file the IND (Imminent) and then conduct the Phase 3 trial, have a read out and then if all is A-Ok, start the registration process. After that we will hopefully get our full licence and we can start selling and generating some decent Francs....or is that Euros?

I thought it would be nice to take a separate country like France and tonight investigate OA in one country (like we have before on China, India and Japan) and measure the potential as a sampler.

Tonight Paradigmers, I will not just cover the usual numbers and state that OA is a problem in France as well... Nah, it's a Mozzarc post...you will get more...if I'm going to dedicate so much time to this investment it has to uncover something not many at all know about....as I say, we are early to this party, it's evident in the low share price.. but for how mu.ch longer? I will show you a Geographic heat map of France...I will also not only show you historic figures but I'll cover a projection on how things might pan out if left untreated...

Grab a beer...maybe a coffee or how about a French Champagne on ice and please enjoy....

Not entirely sure about you but I'm a rather large proponent of Mozz Quizzes ©...they add a certain pizzazz, vitality and intrigue, non?

Yes I'm glad you agree so without further ado...

Question. How many Adults suffer from joint pain in France?

A) 1 in 23

B)....Well we are well versed in such quizzes now...so it's not A)..... 1 in 8?

C) Can't be any more than one in 4? That would be a quarter of all adults?!

The answer my friends is 1 in 2. ² You think that's bad? What about 18-24 year olds?

I would've thought it'd seriously be no more than 1 in 15...around 6.6%....

Wrong again.

Try 1 in 3

There are some 4000 children suffering from inflammatory rheumatic diseases over there with some 10 million French People suffering from osteoarthritis. Now you'll remember that 'Sleep at night' was the single highest efficacious category in our latest SAS WOMAC response...

_{Remember this? Highest performing category was sleeping at night... (PAR announcement 3/2/21)}

Well in light of the above results, how about this stat from the French research:

"65% of French people have had their sleep affected by joint pain"

A lot of the French people are a little blaze about OA...in a survey that asked them if it can be fatal, some 8 out 10 responded that rheumatic diseases are never fatal. In fact mortality has been found to increase by some 50% when walking is limited by these diseases.

While it is true that amongst the OECD France has amongst the lowest obesity rates, there is a fact within this that is changing and has a couple of links between us and iPPS. There rates of obesity have been increasingly steadily. 1 in 10 are obese but some 40% are overweight.² What has obesity got to do with us?

Plenty:

Obesity causes a constant state of inflammation and diabetes is just one result, heart disease is the other, both are inflammatory.
Additional kilos means additional pressure on load bearing joints which in turn can cause OA to accelerate.
Weight loss in OA can impart clinically significant improvements in pain and delay progression of joint structural damage.⁴
As an additional point, "In a study of an adult population without clinical knee OA, fat mass was associated with increased cartilage defects and bone marrow lesions (BMLs), which are features of early knee OA." ⁴

In May, 2019 a group of researchers wanted to compile information based on data collected between 2012 and 2018 to project out how OA could be forecasted to grow in France. A lot of insights were gained. Let's take a high level look at some of the data.

Firstly these were the total number of procedures conducted from 2012 to 2018 in France:

The below is a Mozz compiled chart of the breakdown of just 2018's figures by subclass procedures:

The figures above are a little lower than the numbers as a percentage of population compared to the USA but they are in the ballpark.

Here are some fast facts on what these researchers also found:

In 2018 there were some 364,436 primary knee surgery procedures

The three main procedures were Knee Arthroplasty (113,600 procedures), meniscus surgery (110,510 procedures) and ligament surgery (57,053 procedures).

The vast majority of the above procedures were conducted in for-profit hospitals (69%).

Primary knee arthroplasty procedures increased by some 32.3% between 2012 and 2018.

The data is fairly comprehensive as the researchers break up their findings into a geographical mapping of the data. One observation that stood out is that the frequency of OA related procedures varies significantly from region to region as we have seen these sort of stats while uncovering research from Japan and China in the past. There is a consistent theme of increased frequency of OA incidence in people in the regional and farming areas.

_{Fairly detailed geographical heat map of the number of procedures and frequencies per 10,000 people residing in each province.}

All very good, nice to see how the historic figures have played out but what about the future? Well the research team took two distinct scenarios when trying to plot out the future based on the past and current demographics and incidents of OA and their procedures.

Scenario 1 (Blue Line) was a straightforward extension of the trend based on the population growing and the age of the population shifting over time. Scenario 2 (Orange line) takes into consideration projected data estimated using linear regression. Linear regression is simply a mathematical way of plotting a line as a trend through the data as a best fit. (Least amount of distance between plotted points for instance).

_{Now we get a sense of the magnitude of this problem if left unanswered. Demand for iPPS here?}

Mate the numbers are crazy....from some 360,000 procedures to around 760,000 by 2070? Incredible....Can you just imagine the size of this problem? This is just one country, France has a population of 68 million...Paradigmers...the numbers are large, sure...but now connect the Mozz dots to understand why I see a continuous vein of gold here...read on!

Paradigmers, Europe has a population of 750 million. That's more than 10 times France.Are you getting a sense of how many people will potentially use our drug one day? Now Europe is not being done in tandem...we are doing this simultaneously...it not like we need to start a separate Phase 3 AFTER we get a go in US....it will all happen at the same time...it will literally be an explosion....all you have to do is:

1) WAIT

2) ENSURE WE DO NOT GET TAKEN OVER

Currently we trade for $2.65 per share....As I have said to a few good mates...I often wander around the house and bemuse myself by thinking what can I sell to convert to shares? What if I sell that second fan...what if I Ebay out my old bicycle...how many additional shares can I buy of PAR and what will they each be worth in the year 2026? (My views, do not over invest in any one investment vehicle no matter how good it looks. Consider what situation you would be in if things don't work out as we forecast).

There is growth ahead of us Paradigmers...the market isn't factoring much in currently, but it's views I believe will change one day....as we draw closer to the results of some of these trials, as our name spreads and more learn about what our lead drug can do and is capable of, I think sentiment will shift. Of course an external factor like a deal will launch us totally....France is just one area in the world where we will do a lot of good.

Well I can't argue that we aren't a few years away from selling in France and a number of other countries....but let me tell you this. Once we start...we will hit countries like France with such a big bang it will make Pool Boy's allowed rocket pics look like those little sparklers you get from the Reject Shop (Ollie's Bargain Outlet)...

Probably a good time to remind you of what Humira did. Incidentally Humira had some pretty similar early results as us, 50% of their patients displayed 50% improvement. We have similar figures in terms of pain. They had NO sales on Day 1 of 2003...by the end of just one year, the end of 2003, they achieved their first BILLION DOLLARS of sales...They went from selling in ZERO countries to 22 in their first year. Humira's TAM (Total Addressable Market) is only a mere tenth of ours.

Humira is Black Labelled and is now subject to looming competition.Yes there will be a stock market lag in our case...but when it starts moving...it ain't going to be stopping any time soon. Yes it is some time for the trial read outs...but two points here:

1) Our share price will start moving BEFORE these major milestones and certainly before the read-outs...

2) There are leads and events sprinkled all through the upcoming main trials...

Some examples please Mr Mozz:

1) Manuscript feedback on the Twins...due soon
2) Possible movement in Japan in terms of a deal
3) MPS Program updates
4) 008 evidence later this year
5) Info on the mysterious potential 3 new re-purposed drugs
6) Feedback and updates on ARDS and Heart studies

Any of the above can strike any time to keep us moving along. This is not a very long and boring drug company story that will provide no news for us for YEARS and at the end of the test we have no idea whether it will work. We already have had a lot of great parallel data and evidence to date...we know where we are going with this...our Trial 3 is very similar to trial 2...a big bonus for us...we already have GMP in place ready to roll...we are on a clear and higher probability of success pathway.

We know France is part of the EMA for which we are about to start the last Phase, Phase 3 in OA, but today I just wanted to pluck one country out as a sampler to show us the sheer potential and the demand side of this problem by drilling a bit further down.

Mate, one day I can project that the demand for iPPS will be continuous and unsurpassed... Sure we might have to wait for a few years..this isn't going to happen next week or next month...but Paradigmers *whispering now* I kinda think it might be worth the wait?!

_{PAR HC - Pirate Day 2026?}

In 5 years time...let's get together and we'll have a croissant and a coffee to celebrate... maybe even on the French Riviera on a private yacht?

Finally,

(Good Luck to all investors)

DYOR s'il vous plait.

1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877056820301560?dgcid=rss_sd_all
2) https://presse.inserm.fr/en/1-in-2-french-people-suffers-from-joint-pain/25303/
3) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877056820301560?dgcid=rss_sd_all
4) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3788203/#:~:text=Obesity%20is%20associated%20with%20the,progression%20of%20joint%20structural%20damage.