From McHughWe got another Hindenburg Omen observation Wednesday,...

From McHugh

We got another Hindenburg Omen observation Wednesday, June 18th, the fourth since June 6th, and the third this week, and we continue to have an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen potential stock market crash signal on the clock. Getting a fourth does not make the risk of a crash any greater than had we just two observations, however it does drive home the point this remains an unhealthy market, and it is no aberration. There is an approximate 25 percent probability that we will see a full blown stock market crash within the next 120 days, taking us into a risk zone through October 2008. This is significant as the odds of getting a stock market crash on any given random day is less than one-tenth of one percent. Further, we can tell you that there has not been a stock market crash over the past 25 years without a confirmed H.O. preceding it. The odds of a significant stock market decline that is not a crash is higher than 25 percent. This is the first confirmed H.O. since October 2007, which led to a mini-crash.