free fall, page-4

Anyone understanding what is going on with this stock?

The same thing that's going on with every other speculative biotech. Just looking at the As, Avexa and Acrux have performed similarly.

(I rank Alchemia in between those two as far as risk goes. Acrux, with one product already selling and others not far off, is less risky. But Alchemia's lead drug is a synthetic generic which should see rapid approval, where Avexa is still in Phase III trials; Alchemia also has a partner while Avexa is looking for one.)

A back of the envelope calculation: Arixtra sales $300m/year, likely share of that taken by generic $100m/year, profits on that $50m/year, Alchemia's share of those $25m/year.

Obviously there's concern about the delay filing the ANDA. If they can't get the manufacturing to scale to commercial volumes, that would be a killer.