I agree with the SWTOA example holding the options up due to the...

I agree with the SWTOA example holding the options up due to the conversion - The maths still works.

I guess we will find out next month on who is crap.

The problem with your maths though is if you believe the shares are cheap then the value of the options goes up between now and the date of listing.

Either way it is a good bet as the time value is real as an option is just a loan to you.

You cannot say the shares are cheap and then say the options should incur no time value that is contradictory.