ROC oil - Numbercruncher researchNo value appears to have been...

ROC oil - Numbercruncher research

No value appears to have been added to ROC at present to allow for Cabinda, Angola oil prospects.
The story so far is that ROC jumped in for onshore concession as soon as a kind of peace was established and the local rebel groups were merged into the Angolan Army. The enclave of Cabinda (pop 300,000)was a seperate protectorate of Portugal until just before independence of Angola. The local tribe the Bakongos invited the Portugese in to help protect them from the incursions of the Belgians. It was a leading slave port on the west African coast earlier. Cabinda produces a high proportion of Angolas exports 90% is a common figure mentioned, but from offshore oil platforms. These are mainly run by Chevron and Gulf oil. Little of the state revenue produced by the oil has ever ended up in Cabinda. The bitterness continues.
The offshore area produces over a million barrels of oil a day. It has produced 700,000 bbl /d for about 20 years.
No onshore exploration was attempted due to said warfare, and neighbour DRC invaded Cabinda in 2000,to grab the oilfields and Ang.responded by invading DRC southern border towards the cashbox of the copperbelt. This is now over and settled. Perhaps the congolese invasion made the small local population wonder if they really could survive alone.
ROC's drilling has discovered a shallow 177m bbl heavy oil deposit of which about 30m bl may be extractable. This is quite small by Cabinda standards but is about equal to all ROC has rights to to date. The Angolan powers that be want have 20% of the concession, and no doubt will levy taxes, but they are not as demanding as the Chinese who cut a very mean deal in China for foreigners.
ROC have found the sand structure that is host to the prolific offshore fields continues under their concession with the latest hole. They now have a clearer idea where the centre of the nearest target dome is and they are moving to drill this now. The chances of a very substantial find are good from the history of the area, from the next few holes. These deposits are shallow, and prolific. The bigger ones are would class, for example area 1 nearby offshore pumps 100,000bbl a day.
The costs of extraction and development would be a small fraction of that offshore so could be even more profitable.
However, the Cabinda independence movements are quite likely to make a target of any onshore development with sabotage raids in their quest to put pressure on the Luanda ruling group to return much more money to where it was derived from. They have a case and a good one.
It may be that the more laid back style of Australians could be more to the liking of the locals though, especially of they use some of the proceeds of the oil found if any to provide infrastructure like roads, schools etc. but it is not clear if this is sustainable in the face of African regimes if the experience of Anvil in DRC is any guide.
Odds of bonanza oil good and shortening rapidly. Sov risk more from locals than Angolan govt/regime who have been dealing with foreign oil cos for 20 plus years.
As in the case of the DRC the local resources are prodigious but the risk of sometrouble high. It may not however by all that hard to protect a couple of dozen oil pumps and a pipeline underground a few kms to a coastal loading depot. It is possible to hire a small army in this part of the world for not a lot. No huge oil platforms or rigs to pay for. An oil midcaps dream. Capital requirements=low, on oiler scale.
Opinion, not fact yet- It could well be now that finding oil here will be like shooting fish in a barrel.
This is free-but dont rely it DYOR.