@Blowie
Firstly there is the issue of counting or not counting the performance shares (because of the terms attached to these ones I'm counting them as definitely going to be earned).
You divide the Market Cap number by the number of shares in issue, the opposite of what you do now A$0.04 x 2.5B shares = A$100M current Market Cap.
However, we're looking 8 months into the future and we have no idea what will occur between now & then.
Syntonic might go out there and buy another company in the meantime & pay for it in shares (even if it was a small acquisition, it means more shares in issue, so say it cost 150M shares at the time).
1. So if I had said it would be A$1 per share by the end of June, then for that to occur its not a A$2B market cap number it is A$2.65B (A$1 x 2.5B+150M). In that instance A$2B divided by 2.65B shares = A$0.75 a share.
2. If they stayed as they are then my A$2B works out at A$0.80 a share (A$2B divided by 2.5B)
3. Or they could start a share buyback scheme before the end of June from the company's cash-flow & thus they'll be less than 2.5B shares in issue, if they did that then the per share number would be slightly higher than A$0.80.
The jist of it being its easier to use a Market cap number, than an actual share price number over a longer period, otherwise you're held hostage then to unforeseen events.
If 1. occurred and the share price got to A$0.75 then I'd say my expectation was met, others out there would argue I'd failed miserably because it only got to 75% of my original expectation !!!
LOTM
