Wow, I was reading the comments on the new thread started by mmartin. I find it astonishing and unbelievable to be reading this kind of speculation / valuation and even more unbelievable that GV adds to it with a tweet.
My view is the valuation of LNG shares being $10 in 2020 borders on being the most misleading information I have read on this company in the last six years. I have previously posted financial returns for this company (based on the company’s own figures) and that was before GV decided he would lower the tolling price and before the last CR diluted the SP further.
Friday, the week before last I bought a pretty fair size parcel at $0.44, and as I posted previously, I did this based on speculation that a trade agreement would be reached, and the average SP was above the then current level. I took into account the dollars and risks involved when I bought and I sold the following Monday at $0.43.
The part of the speculation I took most into account was the press release from Sarah Sanders suggesting an agreement would be reached the following week!! Two days later the ‘Donald’ tweeted that China had been reneging on the deal; he’d had enough, and was now upping the tariffs to 25% on $300 Billion worth of Chinese goods.
Bought on speculation, took a risk and learnt a good lesson. The number of times I have criticised speculation and the number of times people in Washington, LNG LTD, and on these threads have speculated is mind boggling and just makes me recall the old adage “Speculation is the mother of all evil!!”
Looking back, I think that it’s a shame share holders didn’t take the time to discuss the stock in a more open and informed way, and share balanced opinions and appropriate arguments backed up by evidence. So it’s back to facts and fundamentals for me!!!!
Now China is raising tariffs on US LNG to 25% I consider the following things: Without contracts signed LNG will need a CR before too much longer; IDG have already lost over $7 Million in investment value, so I don’t think they will be in a hurry to purchase any more at an inflated price; the share price moving average is steadily heading south into the $0.30’s and any CR at that price will heavily dilute future returns even more, and that’s after Stonepeak, other equity agreements, and debt have been serviced, so this $10 valuation is more than just misleading speculation to me, to me it borders on criminal intent.
A little while ago I posed a question on the threads relating to a CR that I thought someone like Sivart may have been able to answer, and around this time last year I suggested a CR was on the cards and Timbo’s response was “Not at these prices”. Some posters have been somewhat conspicuous by their absence and I wouldn't be surprised that a few past management supporters have been gradually selling down their holdings.
In regard to IDG, so much for their access to higher level talks, so far this year a number of media releases by GV have all been desperate. Lowering our price and an article in a Shanghai paper letting the Chinese know that we are an Australian company (by someone name Dan) being just two examples. Add up the red flags: Greg Vesey asleep at the wheel; low oil prices, a natural gas glut; Qatar (who in addition are building the Golden Pass export project with Exxon Mobil in the US); 10% Tariffs on US LNG; General Malaise; Soft Spot Prices, Price discussions with Europe breaking down quickly; 25% tariffs on US LNG; the 'Donald' thinking he can bully China (after telling everyone President Xi thought the 'Donald' was very clever, a trade deal was very close, he got a beautiful letter from President Xi....and so on it goes!!)
Champee often posts some good information he finds, and recently posted a couple of links including one that suggested LNG is going ahead with Bear Head. My view is there is more chance BH will be sold off (at a loss) than ever going ahead. I feel GV has been irresponsible in his recent tweet regarding the **elli analyst’s report, and as HC readers know, I feel he has been irresponsible in past statements.
Every time I hear anything about BH I remember GV’s statements back in 2017 including “We are having very productive discussions, and “Public statements relating to the timing of Final Investment Decision by unpermitted LNG export projects are purely speculative and unreliable” or John Baguley saying “Construction on a US$4.5-billion liquefied natural gas plant in Cape Breton could start by as early as next year”.
By the way, Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG Project (that was 15 months behind LNGL) recently started construction and Sempra’s Cameron project has just asked FERC for permission to begin shipping exports. It all seems laughable given GV’s past comments.
And it all reminds me of when my brother and I travelled to Nova Scotia to have a look at the Bear Head site a few years ago. We stayed a few nights at a motel near Niagara Falls. One morning my brother got up before dawn as was gone for about 2 hours. He arrived back at our room dripping wet, wearing a pair of Speedo’s and announced that he had “Just swam up Niagara Falls!!!!”
I said “I know” “Because I was there and I saw you!!!!”
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