Reading some comments on other threads and a few posters suggesting someone should go along and ask a few hard questions. While I was wandering around the house yesterday two questions came to me that took me about five minutes to write down (about two and a half minutes each)
The first one was for Timbo
Only a few short months ago you included these comments in your post:
“Expect this (China / US Trade War) to be resolved in the near-term” and “As a reminder, MLNG will generate $50bn in ‘revenues’ over 20 years (or $2.5bn pa)”
Timbo I provided my ‘earnings’ calculations which showed MLNG would generate nearly $1bn pa. In addition I provided an explanation of ‘earnings’ versus ‘revenue’. You never provided your calculations, but if you were talking revenue, your numbers would mean that LNG would be operating at a $1.5bn loss pa over 20 years. I imagine your numbers assume accumulating losses associated with losses in equity and share value to Stonepeak and IDG (share dilution and costs related to share rights and other remunerations and repayments) and further share dilution related to capital raising or debt raising (and incurring interest rates) required to fund Bear Head (if it doesn’t go the way of Fishermans Landing that is). Can you provide clarification on this, as well as whether or not you are affiliated with the company in a manner other than just being a share holder?
The second was for GV
Can you explain how an executive team with around 100 years of combined industry experience differentiates between informed projections, speculation, and misleading the market, in respect to each of the following company announcements and projections?
12/16 “As we finalize LNG offtake agreement efforts”
01/17 “We will be moving to finalize firm offtake agreements in the New Year”
03/17 “Construction on the Magnolia facility is expected to begin later this year”
03/17 “In discussions with potential offtakers for more than three times the 8mtpa capacity of Magnolia”
03/17 “Forecast FID in July 2017”
03/17 “All three projects are in an advanced stage of development”
03/17 Lease on the Fisherman’s Landing not renewed, only advised share holders months later
03/17 “Construction at Bear Head could start by as early as next year”
06/17 “Expected to have the whole facility contracted in the next 6 - 12months”
07/17 “We never mentioned finalize”
08/17 “Outlook on Magnolia remains bullish”
08/17 “Likely finish selling remaining capacity at the Magnolia project by the end of 2018
10/17 “Confident of signing offtake agreements with credit-worthy buyers later this year or early in 2018”
11/17 “We hope to have it done by now to mid to 3rd quarter 2018”
12/17 “Probably talking about deals up to 25 million tons just to see what's real and who's going to sign first”
03/18 “There’s ‘real potential’ to get a final investment decision by the end of the year”
05/18 “Buyers of LNG are no longer balking at contracts”
05/18 “Contract talks have picked up significantly this year”
05/18 “Buyers are willing to sign 20 year deals”
10/18 “We remain confident in our ability to reach FID whether or not China participates”
As far as Timbo goes, I have a degree of respect for him. I can tell by his posts that he is well educated, well informed, has a degree of refinement and unlike me, he addresses comments raised by posters’ here in general terms rather than individually like I do, and once he even gave me a ‘like’ for a joke I posted!!!!
As far as LNG’s management, I wouldn’t expect an honest response to the question posted here. It’s probably a question best put to the Market Regulator.
Since I started posting on HC, I’ve tried to encourage share holders to hold management accountable, and in the beginning posters like the eggman and others referred to myself and those who felt management should be held to account as ‘parasites’, only later to reveal that they were trading the company. If LNG sign BTA’s share holders will be rewarded for their patience, if they don’t it will be too late to cry over spilt milk.
Finally, I respect recent posts from mwilson, doctornoh and jkerr as well as the informative and humorous posts by Frankie and others who are long time holders with varying insights into the market, the industry and the company, but you really don’t want me going to the AGM. I‘ve got four questions written down, not ones that only took me five minutes to formulate, ones that raise issues that would have management heading for the exits.
LNG Price at posting:
49.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
