Originally posted by MoneyBags1348
I was hoping to put my energy into other areas and just sit back and watch LNG LTD but after all the comments since the AGM I have to post a comment myself and then hopefully just retire from the threads.
The AGM recording only began from page 12 of the presentation. There was no mention of how Magnolia’s production went from 8mtpa to 8.8mtpa (page 7) and until now KBR has only guaranteed production of 7.6mtpa
Pages 5 and 19 mentioned the executive team’s credentialed expertise - board members with 120 years experience and executives with over 180 years combined experience in energy industry. Of course GV is aware of issues raised including the dissatisfaction regarding performance by executives and the voting around executive remunerations, hence talking up the team, but as we all know, projections, forecasts, assumptions and speculation haven’t been met!!!! Who knows, maybe Michael Steuert falling asleep is what actually goes on at Houston (when they’re not dining at Morton’s Steak House) and maybe the engineering team and other mentioned exec’s are desperate to stay in Houston rather than to be working back in the south pacific and south China sea countries where they were previously stationed. After mrwalker and jkerr’s posts I’ll attempt to hold off opinions on their work ethics and just consider what they say versus what they do.
Page 21 mentioned the company having flexibility in contract design, yet the company only offers two types of contracts i.e.: 20 year contracts and contracts with equity partners which heavily dilute share value.
Page 23 mentions the KMLP feed gas pipeline but no comment made regarding issues relating to Sabine Pass’s priority of supply and KMLP not paying for Magnolia’s tie in to Sabine Pass’s extension pipeline.
Page 26 shows charts targeting 19% demand from Europe and 15% from China. In regard to these countries and comments made recently on other LNG threads:
Regarding Europe, sparky206’s comments about questions on environmental regulations raised by two people attending the AGM is a typical ignorant post as are his comments suggesting Venture Global keeping buyers on the hook. I don’t know who the two people asking questions were but environmental requirements and regulations are becoming more important issues to fund managers and other big investors, especially in Europe where climate change regulations are more important than they are in the US. It's worth remembering that Europe already gets cheap gas from Russia and Qatar and more and big energy companies like BHP and others are now asking for ETS and carbon pricing to be of the mix.
Regarding China and comments suggesting an end to the trade war; Do you think China is going to cooperate with the US after Mike Pence staring down President Xi in Papua New Guinea on the weekend?? And do you think state owned Chinese energy companies are going to sign new contracts with US based companies they aren’t already buying from anytime soon??
Midway through the AGM GV stated that IDG have given them talks with higher level management in China where previously they only talked to lower level. This statement is a bit rich when previous to IDG joining, they twice mentioned finalising agreements, twice mentioned having Magnolia fully contracted by July to December 2018, three times implied FID being achieved by 2018, and on numerous occasions said they were in discussions for more than three times Magnolia’s capacity and stated “buyers are no longer balking at contracts”, “contracts have picked up this year” and “buyers are willing to sign 20 year deals”
In the 47
th minute of the AGM John Baguley speaking in regard to Goldboro said their statements are “very non specific and generic” and “very clever”, yet John himself, in an interview with The Chronicle Herald last year said that Bear Head could start construction by as early as this year.
In the 50
th minute when Pierdae is brought up in a question, you can hear someone in the background telling GV to move on because they don’t want attention drawn to the fact that there is no supply to Nova Scotia.
To the usual poster’s here who go on about those not attending AGM’s, when I worked for, and held shares in AGL I attended AGM’s, I know what goes on, management are always ready to cut difficult questions off and move on, they have a range of methods such as confidentiality and other tactics they always use.
I don’t get overly emotional with this company anymore, in my view no difficult questions were asked at the AGM and management more relieved than they were prepared. I did appreciate seeing Magnolia’s projected capex and opex as it helps assess their financial position.
What would have made the AGM worth attending for me would have been meeting mrwalker and jkerr. Thanks for great posts mw and jk, even if I don't agree, just remember these boys are Texan, they were born with poker faces!!!!
Now hopefully I’ll be able to get back to my retirement and my special coffees!!!!
MB, Glad to hear your thoughts. Some comments below.
My understanding from the recording is that it's not the case that the recording didn't start until page 12, but instead that the presentation only started at page 12 (from what was posted on the ASX) on the day. If you follow the link to the presentation from open briefing you will also find that what you refer to as page 12 is page 1.
Page 7 specifically says "up to 8.8mtpa". Listen to the audio again and you will hear mention of how they have been working on increased efficiencies from trains and the 8.8mtpa. However they don't mention any specifics.
Flexibility in relation to page 12 includes BTA's vs SPA's etc (with as mentioned SPA's actually being what most customers figure out they really want).
In relation to your comments about IDG and china: the low-level vs high-level talks are in relation to IDG's introductions only (i.e. Chinese - and potentially some other Asian buyers), they are not in reference to all discussions the company has had. China has been a more recent target of negotiations and clearly those discussions were improved with IDG's help. This doesn't mean discussions in the past which the company believed would bear fruit at an given point in time were not at the highest of levels.
I didn't interpret the 50th minute comment in the background to be about Pierdare, and I didn't at all hear that "they don't want attention to be dram to the fact that there is no supply to Nova Scotia". All I heard was a non-specific comment saying should we move this along. That could be something nefarious or also something simpler in terms of the allocated time for the meeting going to run short.
