Hiya 9L Like what yer saying, sorry not ennuff time to talk here's my analysis from this morning...
Brief overnight analysis Summary
Monthly Bar is currently 20 points less than first bar of run up
Weekly
Price If one takes the first 4 week run up from march lows and looks at current 3 week run up, then close to 100 points upside is available still
Divergence may be occurring o current macd Histo Clusters current bar is bracketed, next bar tells the story Sochastic so far conforming to conjectured pattern, which could see a minor downturn next week.
Forming third peak down on Hist cluster which again could mean potential sownside.
Daily Very close to having bounced from 13MA and is not impossible that this will show up in the next day or so as this MA is lagging.
If so then More upside to come.
Current Mav divergence from the last month is still conforming thug only just and another day or two of up will see this negated.
Current MACD Hist cluster has seen the last bar exceed the former… This bar is in play and as such could still shrink back until it is in line with previous.
4 hours. Turning down on stocks and divergence on MACD
MACD divergence gives about a 300 point drop for future ref…
In the up trend 70 point drops are the norm, so if we are in another drop then about 40 point drop from closing price would fit this. 4190 on IG pretty close to where the 21MA would be located on this timespan.
Hourly Price has pierced the 13MA from the upside and is currently sitting below it. My expectations here are that after said pierce the 21 MA is likely to be tested this is roughly 15 pts below current price (pre open) Price is still above the 200MA currently 115 odd points below price at the moment… this has been a long time above this MA and a test of it is not out of the question. MACD
The current hourly histogram cluster is moving rapidly towards the zero line suggesting we are seeing a momentum change on this timespan.
MACD moving averages and histograms are still conforming to divergence on the run up on this time frame from July 12. If this divergence is not broken, then the d’side target for this time frame of 3860 odd (370 points from current price) is still valid.
STOCHASTIC The stochastic has begun to roll, it is at a level from which it coulsd still bounce back into the Obought region without a prob so cannot really say this means downside imminent based on this indicator.
The hourly bars I mentioned on the trading thread yesterday did go higher after my initial posting about it and as per my “new” theory about MACD moving averages bracketing histograms, this indicated higher price moves n sure enuff we got em (in spades)
5 minutes Since yesterday, on the five minutes the uptrend has been in five waves, followed by a failed 7th wave…
This suggests to me on this time sapn that the current uptrend hass exhausted and a new trend is beginning.
V important here is this does not mean the new trend willl be down or up, just the current rend is exhausted.
It is very conceivable that we are in a three wave retrace now after the failed sevent wave and this is borne out by the MACD moving averages on this time span.
As such I can see a conceivable 30 points lower than current price before the market decides on new trend direction.
Importantly though, both the stochastics and Macd Moving averages are well down, and could be indicating the first move from the starting gate will be up.
Conclusions We are still at end of month and option expirty for equities was yesterday… could this mean we have seen a ramp up so the big boys could get a nice high price for their options, and now a sell down after end of month window dressing?
You’re asking me!!!!
Bahahaha!
With little lead from the US at the moment, price after their market close has been fairly stable, I’d suggest that first moves more than likely up, at least 6 points to retest the hourly 13 MA from underside. From the first move (and I am talking futures here, open at 09:50) I’d suggest down MAY be the go… the 13 MA is all important on the hourly though…
If we gap up I’ll be looking for shorts If we gap down I’ll be looking for longs
If we open at close price I will as usual have no idea but would suggest again first move from open probably up in reaction to current low levels exhibited by the indicators on the lower time frames.
Apologies for no charts at this stage, they wiould take me about 20 minutes to sort out n host n post and that’s too close to market open.
(20min delay)