friday frippery, page-89

LOL, Volt.

Cautious warning is always helpful. It can curb unnecessary enthusiasm.

Well,I remembered Mark Hulbert used to use the investors intelligence advisor sentiment as the crystal ball. The current reading is very high. The bullish/bearish ratio is about 2.4. (like 48% vs 20%)

During early Feb low, the reading is about 1.3 (like 35% vs 25%).

Is market topped? well, the reading is at around 3 from Nov 23 2009 to 19 Dec 2010, for 8 weeks!

SP500 gained 5% during the same time!

BTW, The last move from Nov 09 low to Jan 19 2010 high is about 11 weeks. If this rally can repeat the pattern, early May top is very possible, which fit in the traditional March-May pattern perfectly.

We might still have 4-5 more weeks rally, with brief and small correction along.

Shorting the market might be too early. But I won't mind to take profit gradually. My middle point is 4750. below that, is an accumulate or buy, and above that is selective buy, reduce or sell.