friday night base metals, page-9

Guy’s sentiment in the market is everything, metals can go as high as they want, and 9 out of 10 times if the Dow has a good drop, we like the sheep that we are will follow. Now I know that not always the case, but it’s the general rule. Its to our favor in a huge way that the Dow starts to climb slowly but surely out of this depressed state its in, so even though base metals fell quite a bit last night I’m very happy that the Dow has lifted 302 points. The song gets sung a lot on HC that the US one day will lose its leading roll on the rest of the world. But the truth is the US is still the world’s financial leader, and unfortunately still in a huge way. We will follow them for still many years..IMO.

Mx.


Commodity Boom Just Getting Started, Says Longtime Bull Saut
Posted Aug 08, 2008 02:10pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Related: FCX, XLE, MOS, AGU, POT, DBC, GSG
With the dollar rallying and commodities slumping of late, a lot of folks have declared the commodity boom to be dead.
But "it's still the first or second inning" of the cycle, says Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, citing a ratio of the CRB Index vs. the S&P and (more importantly) growth in emerging markets
Saut was one of the first on Wall Street to recognize the approaching boom, turning bullish on commodities and "stuff stocks" back in late 2001.
He reduced those bets - and corresponding bearish dollar positions - in late 2007 but still believes "the wind is still at the back" of not just oil, gas and coal but base metals, agriculture, timber i.e. Anything where "if you drop it on your foot it hurts," he says.
Like commodities, Saut believes emerging market stocks have suffered a counter-trend decline rather than entered a bear market phase. He is particularly upbeat about Vietnam currently, based on its exposure to the agriculture cycle, and recommends the Vietnam Opportunity Fund







.