friday night trading, page-140

voltaire, lol, you've become more ascerbic with age..

thats probably a good thing, unless we're married, and no, thats not a proposal... yet..

I have been reminding myself that the trend stops when it does, that I have no idea where or when that will be, and that the important thing is to know when I'm going to get off. This I do know.

I have also noticed that aord has outperformed spx in that aord has closed above the 200dma, whereas spx has yet to achieve that. This is the aord first weekly close above the 200dma since jan 08, and aord has otherwise respected the 200dma since then. So it seems to be significant. There are however some formidable weekly resistance candles around aord 4000 - 4250, which isn't far away. I'd say the market game plan is either to suck everyone in as you suggest before leaving them like shags on a rock after an oil spill, or it might be to get a bit of retracement room so they can hold the market above the 200dma, or... well, the pnf charts suggest aord 5550 as a price target for this move. Pass the salt. Anyway, the trend is up right now.

In any case, the break of the 200dma may suggest we're not going to see the right shoulder develop any time soon, unless this breakout is a bull trap. Could be given how overbought the market seems. But, theres been so much fundie buying lately on some stocks I watch, huge orders, I'm thinking maybe not. Anyway, the trend is up and the important thing is to know when to get off.

basic timing says that the recovery will take at least as long as the decline, and it took 18 months to fall. That suggests about another year or so til aord 6100. Not much time to hang about in consolidations.

Alternatively, this rally can be seen as simply a restest of the lows of 02-03, prior to a larger fall. erk! The breakout of the 200dma suggests otherwise however.

only thing you GOT to know is when to exit.