friday noir, page-12

fwiw...i posted this earlier this morning on another thread.



hi all

i'm finally done with my working week....apologies for not pulling my weight in posting this week.

fwiw, i did say that i thought that mchugh's next turn date may prove to be a low and not a high. i've been short the spx since 1385 as my indicators highlighted that the u.s. market was overbought and were at levels of previous recent downtrends started. i took a chance and was willing to ride it higher if necessary and top up. but, i didn't get the chance to do so.

i suspect the spx may fall down to support currently sitting at about 1349. i have trendline convergence on the 29/2, 10/3 and 29/3. if i'm right, we may see a short-term low hit by either today or monday morning. then perhaps another short lived rally next week before we turn down again. i would like to think that the final low may be in early april rather than armstrong's date - about 55 td's from the 22/1 lows.

and if we continue to repeat the pattern of the last year, june should see another important low - with major lows being about 110 td apart, ie march 07 to august 07 to jan 07 - next being june.

however, not sure what to think about the aussie. aud is at record highs again and rba is expected to raise rates again next week. our market seems to have turned down whenever the aud spikes higher in the past. if we repeat this trend, the aussie may not see a relief rally next week???

just a few of my worthless thoughts.